KEY POINTS:
I must say that I have been rather impressed with John Key's strategy since he took over the leadership of the National Party. His raiding of Labour's turf has taken everyone by surprise, and so far, he seems to be getting away with it.
Normally, politicians who become political leaders have had years of public exposure, and we have had time to form a clear opinion of them. But because Key is relatively unknown to us, he is able to present himself in any way he likes.
I thought that the "poor boy made good" was a bit rich (pun unintended), but from what workers tell me, he seems to have successfully positioned himself almost as a working class champion. This must have the Labour strategists worried.
Every Kiwi likes the story of the little battler making good, and the National Party spinners must be feeling very pleased with themselves. One of Key's messages that has hit home positively with people I know is that he wishes to play an aspirational role as the potential next prime minister. This is in stark contrast to former leaders like Don Brash and Jenny Shipley, who had a sermonising, hectoring leadership style.
During Key's new leader honeymoon period, Labour was always going to be in a lose-lose situation. Clearly, they are getting rattled now, as it seems to be dragging on for far too long. All he has to do is not make any major blunders during this time, and he will have successfully branded himself as a caring centrist. People clearly like him, and recent polls have Key's personal support soaring. Labour must be relieved that Key's personal standing isn't transferring into any uplift of support to National, and on current polls Labour will still win the next election - although there is no doubt that both parties will be slugging it out right up to election day, and National won't need much to jump ahead.
Key's first leader's speech in Christchurch was pretty lacklustre. But it will be remembered for his concern of a growing underclass in New Zealand. Where Brash would have pointed the finger of blame at the underclass, Key has taken an apparently more compassionate view.
Labour has a right to be outraged, as the number of poor under their government has been decreasing. But their over-reaction and almost denial of an underclass seemed overly defensive. The fact that Labour's press office was faxing media statements out attacking the speech before Key had barely finished would have signalled how seriously Labour considers this threat. The ambush by Key in addressing poverty has clearly put Labour on the back foot.
Key's naming of the street, McGehan Close, as an example of the growing problems of the underclass outraged the residents. Although he probably had no option, it was a high-risk strategy for him to then visit the street to meet the locals. It may well have blown up in his face. While the walk-about was cynical politicking, his ability to win over some of the neighbours and the media present was a lucky break and is a defining moment for him.
I will give Key the benefit of the doubt and assume that his invitation to the young Aroha Ireland to Waitangi with him was a spontaneous gesture. Nevertheless, it couldn't have worked better for Key. No amount of money could have bought this kind of political propaganda.
The media just lapped it up. Whereas Brash was accident prone, Key seems to have the Midas touch. The Labour Party must have groaned when they opened their morning newspapers.
It was a strategic coup and good politics. Two decades ago we were all uplifted when then Labour prime minister Norm Kirk was photographed hand in hand with a young Maori boy at Waitangi. But most people who saw young Aroha with Key at Waitangi would have found the whole incident rather tacky and opportunistic. And after this media circus was milked for all it was worth, she was dumped back on the street where she came from with the rest of the underclass that Key was concerned about.
Now that the National Party has a newfound compassion for the poor, I look forward to National adopting a socialist policy of universal free breakfasts and lunches for all students across the country, rather than for a select few.
It will be interesting to see whether the opportunist offerings of charity for the selected deserving poor will endure much beyond the current media spotlight.
But then, I shouldn't be so cynical and should look forward to being surprised further, when National starts advocating more government spending on education and healthcare. How about arguing for more money for beneficiaries and superannuitants to alleviate their poverty? Perhaps the National Party may even propose dramatically lifting wages for working people so they don't have to rely on charity to feed their children.
But what Key will eventually find is that you can't do this if your party advocates tax cuts for the rich as well. So while this is a media bonanza for Key and is enabling National to broaden its political base, it may come to bite him in the butt before the next election. Ultimately, he will have to make a choice: either invest more in our public services or cut taxes. You can't do both.
