KEY POINTS:
National has been successful in keeping the focus on John Key and Bill English, who are articulate and moderate. Key has been doing his best to promote his party's policy as Labour-lite. But soft middle voters must be feeling some unease at some of the signals emanating out of National's back room.
There is almost no attention on what a new National government might look like. So let's look at the likely Cabinet rankings of a new government.
1. John Key
Prime Minister. He won't take any major portfolios. Instead he'll need to concentrate on getting a handle on how to be Prime Minister and keep his factions in line. The constant leaks to Labour must be worrying and a sign of things to come.
2. Bill English
Deputy PM, Finance. He's the go-to guy who will be the new Michael Cullen. If Key doesn't win this election, then English will get the top job back within a year.
3. Gerry Brownlee
Leader of the House, State-owned Enterprises and State Services. His real job will be Government enforcer. The new Trevor Mallard. A bovver boy from way back.
4. Simon Power
Justice and the Attorney-General. Once tipped to be leader, but hasn't shone recently. His chairing of the Privileges Committee must have the Nats worrying about his abilities. He'll still get these jobs because there are no other lawyers on their front bench.
5. Judith Collins
Welfare. She comes right out of the Richardson/Shipley mindset. Solo mothers and those who can't work look out. The Nats seem to get off whacking the poor and it seems a Key government isn't going to be much different.
6. Tony Ryall
Health. He's making a bit of a hash of things at the moment and his confession that doctors' fees will go up didn't endear him to the public. He'll take a surgeon's knife to public health, carving off most of it to the private sector if he can get away with it.
7. Nick Smith
Environment and Conservation. Once the glamour boy and a genuine greenie. Since his very public emotional meltdown after Brash grabbed the leadership from English, he's been rather quiet. No doubt he will be on the losing side in Cabinet on every issue.
8. Maurice Williamson
Transport. He's a privatiser from way back and his recent gaffe about workers paying $50 a week on toll roads to get to work says it all. If anyone thinks the Nats are going to be soft and cuddly, this man will put them right.
9. Peter Dunne
Revenue. The United Future leader has always felt more comfortable with this lot than with Labour. He'll get his tax collector's job back and Key will probably throw in Associate Finance to make him feel like a major player. Dunne will be the Jim Anderton of a new government.
10. Rodney Hide
Education. National doesn't want Act in Cabinet but the hard right won't have a bar of any of that confidence and supply nonsense. To placate Act it might have to toss Education its way. If it does, look forward to the piecemeal privatisation of education. Hide will be the new Winston Peters in this government.
11. Murray McCully
Foreign Affairs. Not as charming as Peters, but he will be our new man drinking with the rest of the world. He is known to be the most politically Machiavellian in parliament, so he'll be able to put all of these skills to work on an even bigger stage. New Zealand will be getting caught up in other people's wars from here on in.
12. Lockwood Smith
Overseas Trade and probably Associate Finance. He's been around forever and is clearly the class swot. If Key gives it to Tim Grosser instead the Nats are probably stupid enough to give Smith back tertiary education.
13. David Carter
Agriculture. Apparently the farmers like him, so he'll get all the rural portfolios no one cares about.
14. Anne Tolley
Education (if Hide doesn't get it). With Katherine Rich and Georgina Te Heuheu out, the Nats have very few women who will make it into Cabinet.
15. Wayne Mapp
Defence and Industrial Relations. He'll also take over Judith Tizard's job of looking after Auckland affairs or whatever she is supposed to be doing. If Key wants to put the boot into the unions, Mapp's his man. He seemed to relish dealing to workers last time he had this role.Some of you will have already picked up on the fact that well over half of this lot were in Shipley's government and most of the front bench were in the Bolger/Richardson administration before that.
Hardly "change for the future", as Key claims, is it? The line-up looks suspiciously like the same old gang we dumped nine years ago.
