As the recession unfolded late last year, the New Zealand economy was portrayed as being on a cliff-edge, with a dive ahead of it.
The pathway out of a recession, as painted by the NZ Institute's David Skilling and NZX's Mark Weldon, was either going to be a swan dive - elegant and strong and from which we'd emerge stronger - or a belly flop, brutal and painful.
The ambition is clearly for a graceful swoop - a series of bold moves that would see us emerge at the end of this global turmoil with an economy positioned to grow significantly faster than our OECD peers. And there is not a better springboard for this swan dive than Auckland.
Though we are quick to assert that lower milk payouts will hurt townies as well as the farmers, we are less likely to connect the nationwide impacts of a slowdown in cities like Auckland with the rest of the country.
Few countries have its biggest city producing 34 per cent of its GDP as we do. In the good times, Auckland's households and firms delivered $21.2 billion in Government revenues. Auckland is where growth is faster, the economy more specialised, and productivity among the highest in the country.
But Auckland can offer so much more.
While Auckland's governance reforms are a necessary part of our economic retooling, they are not the full answer. Auckland needs to perform at a local or community level, as well as nationally, and internationally.
Contemporary city infrastructures are now more international in their scope. Beyond the rudimentary network services for water, energy, transport and telecommunications, they include as well exhibition convention centres, cruiseliner facilities, galleries, stadia, fast links to airports, science parks and revitalised urban spaces.
These are what attract visitors, talent, and global capital.
Look across the Tasman to Melbourne - 20 years ago it was in crisis. It was losing the competition with Sydney to be the financial capital, with mounting public sector deficits and private sector closures.
A bold plan was envisaged - and delivered - with signature investments in transport, cultural facilities, stadia and the Docklands waterfront redevelopment. These places are tourist attractions today, and contribute vastly to Melbourne's attractiveness as a city to live, work and play.
Melbourne now attracts the very best international conferences, shows and events. Visitors flow in all year round, and new businesses have set up shop. Bilbao in Spain, with its landmark Guggenheim gallery is another story of a declining port town turning itself around. The UK's northern cities are further examples.
With the governance reforms currently under way, Auckland is at a point where the momentum seems right for us to execute our very own swan dive.
There is tremendous promise under the reform for Auckland's dysfunctional, disjointed transport infrastructure. Smart, efficient transport infrastructure after all is key to Auckland's competitiveness.
Among these key needs is a fast airport to CBD link to get international and domestic business visitors quickly and reliably into the city centre - something highlighted in the 2006 International Review of Auckland report as crucial to the region's international competitiveness.
Crucial too is the infrastructure for visiting cruiseliners. The cruise season this year is expected to draw more than 130,000 international visitors to New Zealand, bringing with them close to $500 million in direct spending.
Ports up and down the country stand to gain from the burgeoning cruise industry, but Auckland - as New Zealand's cruise hub - can better capture these gains through better supporting infrastructure.
With John Key as Minister for Tourism, the prospects for a world class exhibition and convention centre for New Zealand are at the most hopeful they've been in a decade.
The conventions industry and its supporters have doggedly backed this idea for years, but progress has been at a snail's pace as it hunts for the right organisation with the right accountability to get behind the idea.
A centre of this calibre will inject $65 million or so in new GDP to New Zealand. High spend visitors will stay all over the country after their meetings, and make return visits with their families.
Equally important is the chance for our entrepreneurs, professionals, scientists and medical talent to host the world's best here, and enable a better exchange of ideas and knowledge. That impact's hard to measure, but the boost to innovation, and our global profile, will be immense.
The stars also seem in alignment for creating a vibrant Auckland waterfront. There's agreement by the Royal Commission on Auckland Governance and the Government that urgent reform and more certain delivery of progress on the waterfront is high on the list.
In the Wynyard Quarter alone there's a rare opportunity to re-make a sizeable place for people to live, visit and do business. Wynyard is roughly the size of the CBD as we know it now.
It could accommodate 5000 residents, 8.5 million visits a year, and a great portion of the extra 20,000 CBD jobs forecast for 2040. Just one business precinct already developed in the Viaduct houses KPMG, Vodafone, Hewlett-Packard and Microsoft, relocating 3500 highly skilled people to work in purpose-built office spaces.
Meanwhile, the marine sector, based in Westhaven and Wynyard, is developing plans to become a $2 billion New Zealand industry - complementing the industries in Whangarei, Hamilton, Tauranga, Nelson, New Plymouth and Invercargill.
Great plans are also afoot in the Jellicoe Wharf area with a marine events centre to house Fashion Week and to support the Boat Show. These developments boost competitiveness and create jobs - highly skilled jobs in the construction, the marine and fishing industries, and casual and unskilled jobs in the hospitality and visitor industry.
Melbourne's Docklands turned a State Government kick start of $250 million into $9 billion in committed development, and targets are for 20,000 residents, 25,000 jobs and 20 million visits a year by 2015. Now that is a swan dive we can truly aspire to.
To have a bold plan of signature projects is one thing. Plans come and go. They get revisited. They get shackled by the naysayers, or deferred by today's "urgent" demands.
But plans are carried out by determined leaders united in their vision and strategy. Auckland's governance reforms are vital to get Auckland - and New Zealand - on a path to long term economic and social success.
Courage and belief will define whether the way forward for us from this recession is a graceful, strong leap, or a painful splat.
Kaaren Goodall is the executive director of the Committee for Auckland.
<i>Kaaren Goodall</i>: Courage and belief will build vibrant, vital city
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