KEY POINTS:
The story sounds uncannily familiar even if the ending is (so far) somewhat different. After years of infighting and a string of election defeats, the major centre-right Opposition party gets a youthful-looking new leader untainted by the party's past.
Smart, decisive and supremely self-confident, he calls a halt
to the party's introspective doodling on ideology and yanks it firmly towards the centre.
His fresh-faced appeal and the mainstream re-positioning quickly pays dividends in the polls. The party leapfrogs ahead of its main rival. Over the following months, the governing party is widely written off and consigned to seemingly-inevitable defeat. Then it all starts to fall apart.
Omit the last sentence in John Key's case. However, the rise then slide of David Cameron, the leader of Britain's Conservative Party, is a neon-lit reminder to Key and National that in politics you should never say never.
Key has shown no hesitation in borrowing ideas and tactics used by Cameron during his dream run - just as Helen Clark copied some of Tony Blair's initiatives.
Key too has enjoyed a dream run. But Cameron's is well and truly over. Blunders and wrong calls have seen the Conservatives fall behind Gordon Brown-led Labour.
The circumstances differ. The change of leader has seen an unexpected "Brown bounce" for British Labour in the polls which may quickly fade.
Regardless, Cameron's troubles have shone a ray of optimism into Helen Clark's otherwise bleak winter.
They are added reason why there should be no signs of complacency at this weekend's National Party conference. Should any smugness linger, Key will expunge it completely with his opening remarks this morning.
There is a narrow margin between confidence and arrogance. The last impression National wants to give is that it thinks victory next year is a foregone conclusion.
Key will warn the 600-plus delegates that while Labour may appear cornered, they should never underestimate Labour's willingness to use whatever is required to save its electoral neck.
Having made that point, Key will leave the Labour-bashing to others.
Key's keynote Sunday morning speech will tackle a fresh, yet-to-be-revealed subject which he has not touched on previously. While this will be the news "hook", the underlying purpose of the speech is to display Key as prime ministerial material, someone with a clear vision of how New Zealand can perform better economically, thereby countering Labour's frantic efforts to pigeonhole him as a lightweight who does not stand for anything.
Behind the scenes, Key has wielded his authority in a fashion which gives the lie to Labour's claim he is substance-deficient. He has instilled discipline into his caucus. The lid now stays on arguments. Unity is deemed paramount; the jettisoning of Brian Connell is testimony to how unsentimental Key is about preserving it.
However, Key has yet to display his tougher side in public.
The chemistry of a party conference will see his authority bolstered considerably just through the adulatory reception he will get. However, you can still expect a lot of talk from Labour about "substance" in the 15 months to polling day.
Key must silence it, but indirectly, through actions showing he has the goods. It would be a mistake to fall into Labour's trap and start talking aloud about whether he has substance or not. Better to let his record speak for itself.
That will not stop Labour chipping away in much the same fashion that Blair depicted Cameron as a figure of little substance who would falter at tough decisions.
National's strategists are mindful of that. They say Cameron put too much of a premium on personal style ahead of policy substance.
It is still too early in the electoral cycle for National to be releasing policy. Given Labour's strife, National has not needed to do so. And the longer National holds off releasing it, the more difficult it will be for Labour to neutralise it.
However, the timing of Labour's denigration of Key is not accidental. After nine months at National's helm his leadership is entering a new and much trickier phase.
The shock of the new is fading. The media focus is slowly shifting - too slowly in Labour's view - away from being bedazzled by Key's star qualities to wanting to know what he would actually do as Prime Minister.
While National is not ready to offer detailed answers this weekend, the conference has been scripted to show there is plenty going on.
A dossier has been compiled of policy positions developed under Key's leadership covering matters as diverse as climate change, education standards and the tax treatment of charitable donations.
The party's front-benchers have each been given a chunk of conference time to explain their thinking and float ideas in their respective portfolio areas. They will also combine in a front-bench forum which is all about looking like a Cabinet-in-waiting.
Compared to the slapdash approach of 2005, National is being far more rigorous in its policy development this time. Those in charge of shadow portfolios have been consulting far more widely with relevant sector groups.
The intention is that the end product has broad acceptance in the wider community, thereby positioning National as mainstream and marginalising Labour.
It is all about ensuring policy across-the-board is sufficiently attractive to claw large numbers of voters away from other parties, rather than punting speculatively on one or two big-ticket items like tax cuts doing the trick.
National cannot rely on the old adage about governments losing elections rather than Oppositions winning them. That is first-past-the-post thinking.
National not only has to win next year, it has to win big. It needs a strong mandate so those policies are not watered down or blocked by coalition partners or support parties.
Given its shortage of potential allies, National must win a sufficiently larger percentage of the vote than Labour to give it the sole mandate to govern. A big enough win would leave Labour having to bow to that mandate regardless of whatever fragile arrangement it might be able to cobble together - just as Don Brash had to accept Labour would remain in power in 2005 after a fruitless attempt to patch together an unlikely-looking centre-right Administration.
It is no good National winning by two or three percentage points only to see Labour striking a deal with the Greens.
National cannot sit back and wait for power to fall into its lap. The polls are volatile. Voters' views are not yet fixed. A leader's ratings can tumble as fast as they rose.
Over the next 15 months, and like never before, National is going to have to earn the right to govern. The task for this weekend's conference is to demonstrate that it is not far off being ready to govern.
