John Armstrong: Why Labour needs a little shot in the arm about now

What better tonic for ailing Labour than the light-at-the-end-of-the-tunnel tale of a sister party pulling off a record fourth successive election victory despite being likewise tainted by scandal and self-inflicted crisis.

Inviting Queensland Premier Peter Beattie as guest speaker at next weekend's Labour Party conference is an inspired choice. Having swept back into power for the fourth time last month, the Australian state leader's presence on the conference platform will be a heartening sight for Labour activists - proof that governments do not necessarily have use-by dates.

Beattie joins a growing list of senior Australian and British Labourites who have offered a fresh take on the social democrat vision at the New Zealand party's recent annual get-togethers.

The contributions have ranged from former New South Wales premier Bob Carr, who bored the rose-tinted socks off delegates, to John Prescott, Tony Blair's deputy, who grabbed his audience by the scruff of the neck with a tub-thumping, back-to-Labour basics, cloth-cap socialist-style admonition to wage eternal war against the hated Tories.

Prescott's elixir was politics distilled in a hip flask. A little sip went a long way; Labour could do with a little pick-me-up right now. And the technocratic Beattie's talk of turning Queensland into the "smart state" is more on Helen Clark's wavelength than Prestcott's throwback to Labour's working-class roots.

Moreover, Beattie's Labour Party keeps winning in that most conservative of Australian states. His advice will be extremely valuable to Clark. But he will help in other ways. Having been premier longer than Clark has been PM, his presence will also quell doubts among those wondering about the Clark dynasty and questions of succession.

Those questions, particularly Michael Cullen's longevity as Finance Minister and deputy leader, may fade into the conference background anyway.

The priority is to get the Labour-led Government back on the front foot after months of credibility-sapping distractions and sloppy political management which culminated in the futile battle with Auditor-General Kevin Brady and Labour's conceding it would pay back the money unlawfully spent on election advertising.

There will be unity in adversity. The conference will rally around the mammoth task of raising more than $800,000 with gusto.

A further unifying element will be antagonism directed at the old enemy. The ferocity of National's attacks this year means that party can no longer be dismissed as easy-beats in the smug fashion evident at previous Labour conferences.

The lesson of recent months that Clark and senior ministers will hammer home is that National will do anything to win next time and that Labour should brace itself for a really dirty campaign.

Officially, the conference's theme centres on "building a better future for our children". There will be a deliberate focus on what Labour has achieved for its constituency - things like cheaper doctors' visits, free early childhood education and major income top-ups.

These are deemed to be the things that matter. They are seen as the reason why Labour's poll rating remains robust in the face of more spectacular, but essentially peripheral issues like the pledge card embarrassment and the strife surrounding Taito Phillip Field.

Unofficially, however, the conference will be a call to arms. That will likely permeate the Prime Minister's speech.

Labour is still in retaliatory mode following its mauling by the Auditor-General. Now the air is clearing, Labour hopes its continued demonising of the Exclusive Brethren - essentially a vehicle for demonising Don Brash - will get some resonance.

However, Labour strategists are also acutely aware Labour must start setting the agenda both now and into next year, not least to kill the notion that the political year only begins in late January at the Orewa Rotary Club.

While ministers have a host of policy initiatives working their way through the bureaucratic pipeline, the public sees a Government treading water. The attempt to chart a way forward on the three-pronged thrust of economic transformation, assisting families and forging national identity has so far been a propaganda failure.

The vacuum has been filled by the one thing Clark detests - arrogance, or to be more exact, the perception Labour is arrogant. The absence of contrition for the pledge card disgrace has combined with a "we know best" superiority in a lethal cocktail which could kill Labour's hopes of re-election.

However, while some oblique statement about Labour having the capacity to learn from its mistakes might be a useful insert in Clark's keynote speech, there is no sign contrition is on the conference menu.

That is partly because the "us and them" mentality would see contrition portrayed by National as admission of wrongdoing.

That would be the icing on the cake for National which has triumphed like never before from Labour's massive miscalculation of the impact of both National's "pay it back" campaign and the initial leniency shown to Field.

National, which has long held that demolishing Labour requires demolishing Clark's reputation, has finally made progress on that objective by ensuring the Prime Minister could not duck responsibility and was seen as culpable for Labour's cynicism when it came to spending public money and failing to punish an errant MP.

Normally, Clark has been able to ride above the problems besetting her ministry. However, for months, she has been mired donkey deep in mess.

Equally heartening to National is that Clark has made a string of tactical errors - attacking the Auditor-General, labelling Don Brash as "cancerous" and, overall, failing to acknowledge the depth of public feeling towards Labour's abuse of the public purse.

So far, her preferred prime minister ratings, which are based on her capabilities rather than whether people like her, have proved resilient. But there is often a time lag before polls show the full impact of events.

In the meantime, Labour argues its support in terms of the party vote is holding up amazingly well, all things considered. On a rolling average of the major polls, Labour is hovering around 39 per cent - five percentage points behind National.

Labour may be looking at the wrong figure, however.

National may not be securing support at Labour's expense. But it is definitely draining votes from NZ First and United Future.

That shift in support may be the true indicator of frustration and anger with Labour. It may signal a groundswell for changing the Government because the only way voters can guarantee a change of government is to vote National.

It is too soon to be definitive. But Labour has cause to worry - and doubly so when votes are shifting out of the political centre and heading to the right.