John Armstrong: Sighs of relief all round

The measure of how badly Labour has handled the Phillip Field saga can be judged from the party's obvious relief that the police are investigating the disgraced MP.

The prospect of a police probe into an MP's activities would normally induce a reaction from colleagues akin to Dracula sighting a crucifix.

They tend to recoil in horror - as Act's leadership did when it was revealed Donna Awatere Huata had stolen thousands of dollars of public money.

The Labour leadership has been under intensifying pressure to do something about Field from so many quarters - its membership, its union affiliates, its Pacific Island constituency, the Opposition and finally the polls - that it had become a case of any port in a storm.

The tension that has been enveloping Labour's side of the House for weeks lifted on Thursday afternoon after the announcement from police national headquarters that legal advice to the Commissioner of Police suggested an investigation was warranted.

Problem shelved was problem solved - if only temporarily. While there is nothing to suggest a conspiracy, the police decision and its timing was fortuitous to Labour.

It followed Helen Clark opting to finally grasp the nettle following fresh allegations against Field last weekend. She promptly got stung. She dropped a big hint that Field resign. He was much more consumed with countering the allegations and protesting his innocence. He ignored her.

Clark pulled back for the lingering fear that should she push too hard he might jump ship from Labour, taking with him the Government's one seat majority which enables it to pass legislation without having to beg for backing from the Greens or the Maori Party.

Things were back in limbo. But the pressure was still building on Clark to do something. Her strategy was to somehow absolve herself of responsibility for Field by arguing that as Prime Minister she could discipline ministers but errant backbenchers were the territory of the party organisation, particularly when it came to candidate selection or - in Field's case - de-selection.

The way Clark was talking it was if she was having an "out of body" experience and referring to someone else, rather than acknowledging she also happens to be leader of the Labour Party.

As National's Gerry Brownlee observed, it was an example of Clark trying "to ride over the top of things".

Clearly, she expected Labour's ruling council to deal with Field at its meeting this weekend.

Senior Labour figures concede the party would have taken some form of disciplinary action, although what and when had not been determined.

Now, Labour does not have to do anything in a hurry.

The police are saying the investigation is unlikely to be completed until well into next year. Field will remain on leave out of Wellington, out of sight and - Labour hopes - out of mind.

Having relieved him of his electorate duties - the source of his problems - Labour is also probably hoping he will go out of his mind with boredom, prompting him to do what the party had sought to steer him into doing this week - resign from Parliament or, at least, announce he will not be seeking selection for the Mangere seat at the next election.

Apart from taking the problem off the immediate political agenda - and, admittedly, much of the damage has already been done - the other beauty of the police investigation for Labour is that it may avoid more suffering whatever the outcome.

If Field goes to trial and is convicted of an offence punishable by a jail term of two years or more - the bribery provisions in the Crimes Act carry a sentence of up to seven years - he must resign as an MP. Labour would be rid of Field. It would comfortably win the resulting byelection. More likely, him going to trial would take him out of circulation for the rest of this term. For reasons of natural justice, Labour could not expel him in the interim. It would keep distancing itself from him. However, a trial around election time would be a major embarrassment.

If Field is cleared by police of doing anything illegal, he will return to Parliament a far more difficult target to attack. He cannot likely claim to have been exonerated because the damning findings of the Ingram report will continue to raise questions about the morality of his behaviour.

But National would have to be careful not to be seen persecuting him.

The worst outcome for Labour is that police hint at wrongdoing but say there is not enough evidence to mount a court case. Wits around Parliament are joking about the police ruling Field having a prima facie case to answer but opting not to prosecute. That was what happened with David Benson-Pope and this year's police investigation into Labour's election spending.

To stifle the likely public uproar, Labour would have to again confront disciplining the MP - something it has also ducked for fear that might see him opt to become an independent MP.

If the police investigation clears him of illegality, he will return to Parliament with the 2008 election little more than a year away. He will be irrelevant, an MP in name only. He could create some minor bother through being shut out of retaining the Labour candidacy for his Mangere seat, but Labour expects even he will have realised his re-selection is not a goer.

In the meantime, the police investigation will frustrate National's effort to keep the issue alive. Labour has deflected questions by saying they were dealt with by the Ingram inquiry. Now it can duck questions by saying they fall within the parameters of the police investigation and it would be improper to comment.

However, it could have been in that position all along. Anyone reading the Ingram report quickly reaches the conclusion that the qualified findings demanded further investigation.

The report reflected so badly on Field that the moral compunction on Clark was to either set up a fresh inquiry with powers to summon witnesses, demand Field's resignation from Parliament or the Labour Party - preferably both - or set in train procedures for expelling him from the party. Apart from murmurings of disapproval, she did nothing.

But lacking answers, the questions about Field were never going to go away without a proper inquiry.

Now there is something akin to the official inquiry which Labour should have instituted in the first place - not just for moral reasons, but for its self-protection. Instead, for failing to do so, it got just reward - six weeks of agony.