John Armstrong: Same spot, same job but he's no Muldoon

COMMENT

Hardly Sir Robert Muldoon reincarnated. Not even close.

Don Brash's much-hyped "racial separatism" speech - delivered on Sir Robert's old stamping-ground of the Orewa Rotary Club - turns out to be not quite the ripsnorter required to quickly turn around National's fortunes.

Sure, the speech's blunt cataloguing of the supposed favouritism the present Government accords to Maoridom and the alacrity with which some Maori exploit that for their own financial benefit will find a receptive audience among conservative voters.

But the speech lacks a crucial ingredient - the fear factor.

Sir Robert would have left his audience with a queasy feeling in the pit of their stomachs. National's most adversarial leader would have left his listeners angry and unsettled - and wanting to do something about it. Such as giving the Government a good kicking in the polls.

Sure, Dr Brash employs emotive language, such as "greed", "corruption" and "stand-over tactics".

And he has some good lines. His statement that there is "a limit to how much any generation can apologise for the sins of its great-grandparents" is one such.

But the speech in sum is curiously antiseptic, somewhat academic.

To make people sit up and take notice, opposition leaders cannot hold back. And Dr Brash holds something back whereas Winston Peters, Richard Prebble and, of course, Sir Robert would have gone right over the top.

Dr Brash, of course, is no Sir Robert, even though he invites comparison by cheekily choosing the same venue for his late January state of the nation speech.

The restraint is understandable. It would be fatal to try to refashion Dr Brash into something he is not and thereby undermine his credibility.

Dr Brash's advisers have thus sought to strike a balance, especially as they do not want opponents to succeed in portraying the speech as a desperate National playing the race card.

But neither is it any good hyping up a speech which turns out to be not hugely different from the kind of thing Bill English was saying prior to his toppling.

Much depends on the follow-through. The speech is National's first real shot in trying to refocus the debate about the foreshore and seabed away from Maori unhappiness with Government policy to being about Labour giving Maori veto rights over management of the coastline.

Dr Brash claims that policy will ensure Maori commercial developments go ahead while those of other ethnic origin are blocked.

This is highly simplistic as Maori developments will have to be based on a customary right and the number of such rights that are proven to exist is likely to be very limited.

But the wording of Government policy is vague and National has every justification for exploiting the ambiguity. Dr Brash may have been better advised hammering that single theme. But the speech goes far wider than that, thereby risking that message being diluted.

Despite that reservation, Dr Brash does deliver on his promise to offer leadership and stop the Treaty of Waitangi being the "plaything" of those who would divide New Zealanders.

Out go the Maori seats. And references to "treaty principles" in the country's laws. And separate Maori wards in local body elections.

If he has done nothing else, Dr Brash has eradicated National's pretence of trying to capture Maori votes.

But this is not about Maori votes. It is all about capturing hearts and minds among the remaining 85 per cent of the population.

Dr Brash's speech will capture minds. Whether he has captured hearts is another matter.