John Armstrong: Rebel left high and dry on foreshore

COMMENT

The road into the political wilderness is paved with good intentions.

Tariana Turia yesterday heralded a new political dawn for Maori, flagging a new political movement to which Maori can pledge allegiance.

However, she received a swift lesson in how cold it gets the instant you step outside the tent that has sheltered you for so long.

Quitting Labour, Mrs Turia quickly discovered she had called a byelection to which no one is likely to turn up except her.

Having patiently endured Mrs Turia's game-playing and publicity-seeking for weeks, the Prime Minister struck back with a vengeance.

Instantly stripping the Associate Maori Affairs Minister of her portfolios, Helen Clark announced Labour would not be standing a candidate against Mrs Turia in what is expected to be a late June or early July ballot in the MP's Te Tai Hauauru seat.

"We will see Mrs Turia at the general election," the Prime Minister declared tersely.

In other words, Mrs Turia, you can keep. Enjoy your brief moment in the sun. We will deal with you later.

Come the election next year, the foreshore and seabed legislation will have long been written into the statute books.

Maori voters will have more pressing worries - such as what a Don Brash-led National government would do to Maori rights and Maori living standards.

By then, flirting with voting for Mrs Turia's new party may well be an option those voters deem too expensive.

In her handling of the rebel MP, Helen Clark's prime consideration was what effect the MP's defection would have on the Government's majority in Parliament.

Given Mrs Turia's staunch espousal of Maori rights and her life-time's work of stemming Maori social disadvantage, the MP is hardly likely to vote with National and Act too often.

However, her new party will not generate much momentum in the 14-month lead-up to the general election if she remains Labour's poodle.

The loss of a guaranteed vote in the House pushes the majority for the Labour-Progressive coalition, in tandem with United Future, down from 62-58 to 61-59.

But Nanaia Mahuta, the other dissident on the foreshore and seabed legislation, remains loyal to Labour.

Mrs Turia thus does not hold the balance of power - the key political card.

The Prime Minister will judge the occasional loss of Mrs Turia's vote as therefore manageable.

Given Mrs Turia is likely to win her byelection whether Labour stands or not, fighting the byelection would probably not have made any practical difference to the Government's majority.

However, not standing a candidate has the huge benefit of depriving Mrs Turia of being able to claim anything else but a hollow victory.

Mrs Turia would have hoped to use the byelection to establish a profile for her new party at Labour's expense.

Without a Labour candidate, there will be no fun. Neither National nor NZ First is likely to stand a candidate either. Publicity will be minimal.

Labour had to weigh up whether the byelection provided an opportunity to squash Mrs Turia's new party before it really got up and running.

But victory for Mrs Turia over Labour would have given her and her supporters a tremendous psychological boost.

Better for Labour to bide its time.

By election-time next year it may be that Mrs Turia's merry band has discovered that while they all agree on the foreshore and seabed, they do not agree on much else.