John Armstrong: No way to turn for Maori MPs

COMMENT

The Waitangi Tribunal's report on the Government's foreshore and seabed proposal has placed Labour's Maori MPs in an impossible position.

So strong is the tribunal's condemnation of that proposal for breaching fundamental Maori rights that those 10 MPs will have extreme difficulty supporting forthcoming Government legislation to implement the policy.

But such is the nervousness within United Future as the Pakeha backlash intensifies that Michael Cullen and Helen Clark, the senior ministers responsible for the policy, cannot offer Maori any concession that makes it more digestible.

If anything, it is more likely they will have to give ground to those on the other side of the argument if they are to retain United Future's support to pass the legislation.

The alternative is to get the Greens on board. But they want the policy strengthened in Maoridom's favour. Doing that would further alienate Pakeha and give Don Brash even more ammunition.

Dr Cullen says it is ironic that Opposition parties like National are attacking the Government for leaning too far towards Maori, while some Maori and the tribunal are arguing the exact opposite.

Given both sides are unhappy, he suggests independent observers might say the Government has got things about right.

That might have appeared the case straight after the Government unveiled its compromise in December, placing the foreshore and seabed in public domain while giving Maori the mechanism to exercise customary rights.

The Government assumed the silence from Pakeha meant assent.

Not so. Dr Brash's subsequent attack on special rights for Maori demonstrated that Pakeha were actually seething, while the Waitangi Tribunal's findings have given Maori a moral victory which will stoke the resentment they feel towards the Government.

The illusion of consensus has evaporated. Dr Cullen and Helen Clark now find themselves stranded between two blocs of ever-diverging and ever-hardening opinion.

Regardless of what form the legislation finally takes, steering it through Parliament is going to be an absolute nightmare.

Little wonder some in the Government are tempted to try to push the whole thing off the political agenda by referring it to an independent commission of inquiry, perhaps even a royal commission, conveniently reporting its findings well after next year's election.

But Dr Cullen yesterday ruled out such an inquiry.

He seems more inclined to bite the bullet in the belief that the matter has to be settled one way or the other.

But his rejection of the Waitangi Tribunal's report is another snub to Labour's Maori constituency.

The party's Maori MPs were already furious at the Prime Minister's backtracking on some elements of Maori policy and her appointment of Trevor Mallard as de facto Maori Affairs Minister.

But the muffled talk from the Maori caucus of resignations, byelections and a new Maori party is essentially hollow.

A byelection would achieve little, bar the embarrassment of Labour having to fight a campaign against one of its former MPs.

National could not stand a candidate - unless it wanted to look hypocritical after Dr Brash's promise to abolish the Maori seats.

Likewise NZ First, which also has a policy of not standing in Maori seats, although Winston Peters might view a byelection as an opportunity that could not be refused.

Of Labour's Maori MPs, only John Tamihere and Tariana Turia would have any chance of retaining their seats as independents.

What would they do after that?

Vote against the Government and bring it down, thus fast-tracking Dr Brash into the Prime Minister's job?

No doubt Helen Clark has quietly suggested to her Maori MPs that a byelection is not really an option.

And she has taken a softly-softly approach with Mr Tamihere after his public criticism of her, rather than scolding and boxing him in a corner.

Her immediate priority is to cool the whole debate - not inflame it.

Fortunately for her, Parliament is in recess this week, giving her Government some breathing space.

It needs it.