Herald poll: Peters likely to thwart outright Labour majority

By FRANCESCA MOLD political reporter

Winston Peters could deny Labour an outright majority at the next election if he holds the Tauranga seat - and a poll taken in the electorate suggests he will.

A New Zealand Herald-DigiPoll survey completed this week found 40 per cent of Tauranga voters wanted Peters returned as their MP.

He scored more than twice the support of Labour, at 16 per cent and National, 15 per cent.

The result could determine the shape of the next Government. If Mr Peters loses the seat to National or Labour it would improve Labour's chances of a majority in the next Parliament.

A loss would take his party out of Parliament and other parties would get more seats from the proportional distribution.

Labour has attracted 50 per cent support nationwide in recent polls.

The Herald-DigiPoll survey of 462 Tauranga residents found 11 per cent did not yet know who they would vote for. Another 13 per cent were not sure but knew they would not be picking Mr Peters.

But Labour or National would have to capture all the "don't knows" to match Mr Peters' support.

The Labour-Alliance Coalition was denied an absolute majority by Mr Peters' 63-vote win in 1999, which gave him five MPs in Parliament.

The poll also tested whether people would vote tactically to oust Mr Peters. Non-National voters were asked if they would switch their vote to National if its candidate had a better chance of beating him.

Only 6 per cent said they would.

The same proportion of non-Labour voters would switch if the Labour candidate had a better chance.

New Zealand First also scored high in the party vote in Tauranga, getting 12 per cent, compared with its national rating around 3 per cent.

But Labour streaked ahead of all other parties. The poll, which has a margin of error of 4.6 per cent, showed Labour with 50 per cent of the party vote. The figures exclude undecided voters.

National won 28 per cent of the party vote, the Greens 4 per cent, Act 2 per cent and Alliance zero.

Mr Peters was pleased by the result but said there was still a lot of work to do.

The poll showed Tauranga residents would not be told by "big-city media" who to vote for. Mr Peters believes he was unfairly targeted by the media at the last election.

Prime Minister Helen Clark said the 50 per cent party vote result was extremely encouraging for Labour because Tauranga was traditionally weighted towards National.

It also meant a large base for Labour candidate Margaret Wilson to work with in increasing her electorate vote.

National's Tauranga candidate, Tim Macindoe, said the results were not surprising given he had been campaigning full time for only a few weeks. "It's an indication of the work I've still got to do, but I'm still confident I'll pull it off."