Herald DigiPoll: Tough-talking Peters wins points in poll

By JOHN ARMSTRONG, political editor

New Zealand First's hardline stance on immigration, crime and the Treaty of Waitangi is paying dividends for Winston Peters' party, while support for Labour has slipped below 50 per cent, the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows.

The survey of 820 eligible voters shows support for Labour has fallen from 51.2 per cent to 48 per cent in the past week.

That result will disappoint but not surprise Labour strategists, who always believed it was unrealistic to expect the party to sustain levels of support of 50 per cent-plus through the four-week campaign.

But the poll still indicates that Prime Minister Helen Clark, with the help of Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition, would have just enough seats in Parliament to be able to govern without needing to rely on the support of New Zealand First or the Greens.

With just over two weeks until election day, New Zealand First is now registering above 6 per cent, its highest level of support in the Herald poll in nearly three years.

The result underlines the effectiveness of Mr Peters' simple three-pronged campaign strategy, with his party now emerging as a major factor in post-election bargaining over who governs.

On Monday, Helen Clark described New Zealand First's "heady mix" of crime, race and immigration as "deeply offensive".

She would not categorically rule out going into coalition with Mr Peters' party.

But her firm preferences are either a majority coalition with the Progressive Coalition party or a minority coalition with Mr Anderton's party.

The survey highlights the potency of immigration as an election issue, with around 46 per cent of those polled saying present intake levels are too high.

About 38 per cent thought levels were about right, while 6 per cent felt they were too low.

Despite the poll being carried out over a five-day period that included the release of the police report into the "Paintergate" bogus artworks incident, which has embarrassed the Prime Minister, support for National is still in a trough at 24.5 per cent, unchanged from a week ago.

In contrast, the Greens are up slightly and have broken through 10 per cent.

The poll is also good news for Act, which is just under 6 per cent for the second week in a row.

Other parties registering support were the Progressive Coalition on 1.5 per cent, Christian Heritage on 1.2, the Alliance on 0.4 and United Future on 0.7 per cent.

NZ First jumped 2 percentage points to 6.4 per cent.

Translated into seats in Parliament, the party would have eight MPs, three more than at present.

Labour would go back into the 120-seat House with 59 MPs. But Helen Clark could rely on the support of Mr Anderton and the number two on his Progressive Coalition list, Matt Robson, who would both make it back into Parliament thanks to Mr Anderton winning his Wigram seat.

National would fill just 30 seats, nine fewer than at present.

The Greens would have 13 MPs, six more than the party has now.

Act would bring seven list MPs into Parliament, while United's Peter Dunne is expected to retain his Ohariu-Belmont seat.

More poll results:

English and Peters gain in preferred PM standings

Where should NZ accept immigrants from?

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