Herald-DigiPoll: Labour's slump deepens

By HERALD POLITICAL STAFF

One day before the election, Labour has suffered a major slump in support, suggesting it might yet need more than just the Greens to run a minority Government.

The latest Herald-DigiPoll survey, the last major poll before voters go into the booths, shows Labour has lost almost 8 percentage points since last week's poll.

Translated into seats in Parliament, Labour's 38.8 per cent backing would give it 48 MPs, one fewer than it now has.

Ally Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition would have two seats.

The Greens' 9 per cent backing would give them 11 MPs, producing a bare majority for the centre-left with 61 seats in the 120 seat House.

This result, if confirmed tomorrow night, suggests the country could face horsetrading in the days after the election as the parties argue over policy concessions.

The Greens say they will support a Labour-led Government, but also insist their stand on the GM moratorium is not up for negotiation.

Labour has said firmly during the campaign that it does not intend to shift from its "proceed with caution" line once the moratorium ends in October next year.

Labour's support is virtually the same as its share of the vote in the 1999 election, and is the lowest it has recorded in the Herald-DigiPoll survey since the last election.

United Future confirmed its stunning rise from obscurity with a poll rating of 5.4 per cent, which would give its leader Peter Dunne six colleagues in Parliament.

National is unchanged from last week at 23.2 per cent.

This would give it 29 seats against 39 in the last Parliament - which was already its worst result.

Act's support jumped to 8.9 per cent from 5.5 per cent last week, and New Zealand First topped the minor parties with 9.6 per cent support, up 1.3 percentage points, giving it 12 seats.

The poll suggests Helen Clark's gamble of an early election to gain an outright Labour majority has badly backfired.

She called it almost seven weeks ago after a split in Labour's coalition partner, the Alliance, and the Green's announcement that they would not support any government that lifted the moratorium on release of genetically modified organisms.

Then, Labour was consistently polling above 50 per cent.

Helen Clark continued to lead the preferred prime minister ratings in the new poll, but her fortunes have fallen with those of her party.

She rated 44.2 per cent, down from 51 per cent 10 days ago. National leader Bill English was on 16.9 per cent, up from 15.2. New Zealand First leader Winston Peters was unchanged in third place on 8.5 per cent.

Asked if the Government was heading in the right direction, 56.7 per cent of those polled said it was, and 31.2 per cent said it was not.

Asked about the poll, the party leaders said:

* Helen Clark (Labour): "A poll like that is a reality check for Labour supporters who are thinking of going somewhere else. But it is out of line with other public polls and our own tracking. We wouldn't be seeing it as an accurate statement."

* Bill English (National): "It's a wake-up call to conservative voters. We need a strong National Party. It is the party of good economic management, competent government and the principle that you can do it better than the government. Even if you agree with what the small parties are talking about, they can't do anything without a strong National Party."

* Winston Peters (NZ First):Mr Peters does not put much stock in opinion polls. But he said the Herald-DigiPoll showed support for his party was rising and he believed it would continue to do so up to election day.

* Rod Donald (Greens): "We are pleased we are going into Saturday with such a good poll. I am confident we can achieve a good turnout of Green supporters to achieve our goal of double figures. Ten per cent will double the number of Green MPs in Parliament to 14 and enable us to make a significant difference with, or in, the next Government."

* Richard Prebble (Act): "Act has been campaigning on the real issues, health, education, law and order and the economy. Your poll shows that the electorate has responded to that rather than the negative campaigns the two major parties, or can I say the two old parties, have been running." Mr Prebble was optimistic his party would get more than 10 per cent.

* Peter Dunne (United Future NZ): "It's extremely encouraging." The poll showed his party was on track to a good result tomorrow night. He said his candidates were very excited at the prospect of entering Parliament for the first time. "They're a bit like kids before Christmas."

* Laila Harre (Alliance): "Those numbers show it is crucial to a centre-left Government that I am elected as the MP for Waitakere. That guarantees one or two additional members. It's quite clear Labour is going to need all the help it can get to lead a centre-left Government."

* Jim Anderton (Progressive Coalition): "This is a volatile election with more people than in recent electoral history making up their minds who to vote for on the day. My message to New Zealanders is to remember the progress we made in the last two and a half years and not to put this at risk."

Full news coverage:
nzherald.co.nz/election

Election links:
The parties, policies, voting information, and more

Results coverage begins 7pm Saturday on nzherald.co.nz