Herald DigiPoll: Gloomy polls ground National's high flyers

About 15 sitting National MPs and top candidates are likely to miss out on a seat in Parliament if the party's dismal polling continues.

Today's Herald-DigiPoll survey puts National at 23 per cent, its lowest share of the vote since the campaign began.

The same figure on election day would probably cut National's seats in Parliament from 39 to 28, tipping out nine sitting MPs and ensuring four of the party's brightest new hopes do not make it.

Figures compiled by Herald political commentator Colin James show National is likely to win about 23 electorate seats, assuming it loses only one electorate which affects list rankings (Labour's Dianne Yates is tipped to beat Tony Steel in Hamilton East). That would leave just five places for list MPs.

Former Reserve Bank governor Don Brash would survive but there would be no room for the rest of National's high-profile imports, who were given supposedly safe rankings above many sitting MPs. Maori consultant and former top civil servant Hekia Parata (ranked 15) would miss out, with Rangitoto College principal Allan Peachey (18), former party president Sue Wood (19) and environmentalist Guy Salmon (20).

List MP Pansy Wong (10) would get the last seat but Katherine Rich (14) and Bob Simcock (17) would be out. Several other National MPs have been in the danger zone for the past week, with most polls showing National marooned on 24 per cent or 25 per cent.

The party's low polling could also affect electorate seats with 2000-plus majorities, which would normally be considered safe. Party sources estimate National's falling party vote could cost each MP about 1500 votes. As a result even the traditionally rock-solid farming seat of Otago (National majority 2367) is considered winnable by Labour.

More: