Fran O'Sullivan: With help from her friends, Clark could land top UN job

Is Helen Clark positioning herself as Asia-Pacific's candidate for the top United Nations job?

That is the question as speculation builds in foreign affairs circles that Clark made time during her British visit for a private meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair to seek his support for a tilt at the plum role as United Nations Secretary-General.

The diplomatic drum is that Clark needs Blair to use his personal influence with United States President George W. Bush, first to ascertain that if she declared herself as a candidate in the next lobbying round - or, more suitably, allows herself to be prevailed upon to let her name go forward - that she would not be vetoed by John Bolton, the US representative on the United Nations Security Council.

Second, she would need the US to use its influence among other members to get her over the line if she does finally declare.

This is no mean feat given her declared opposition to the US invasion of Iraq.

Nevertheless, it is not being totally discounted because of the willingness of Blair to advocate on her behalf and the fact that the US is not overly impressed with candidates who declared themselves in the first lobbying round.

Also, there is the little-known fact that Australian Prime Minister John Howard this year put in a good word with the American President on New Zealand's behalf in an effort to persuade Bush to put an end to the diplomatic standoff between the world's superpower and New Zealand.

If Clark is to get a run at the job, which is being seriously talked about behind the scenes, her best chance is to portray herself as a suitable Asia-Pacific candidate, then play up the potency of her appointment as the first female to be the UN's Secretary-General.

This would require careful diplomacy and not just by Clark's friends, such as Blair and the other international leaders she has assiduously courted during her near seven years as New Zealand's Prime Minister.

New Zealand's United Nations team would have to quietly canvass views in New York backrooms if they are not already doing so, as I am informed.

If she follows tradition, Clark would also have to seek National Leader Don Brash's backing to provide a demonstration of bipartisanship in much the same way that Labour and National combined to support the successful candidacies of former National deputy prime minister, Don McKinnon as Secretary-General of the Commonwealth, and, former Labour Prime Minister Mike Moore as Director-General of the World Trade Organisation.

This would require some magnanimity on Brash's behalf given the churlish opposition Labour displayed last year by refusing to allow National list candidate Tim Groser to remain as chair of the WTO's agriculture negotiations beyond the declaration of the election date.

Until now it has been accepted as holy writ that New Zealand would simply be happy to endorse the leading Asian candidate for the UN Secretary-Generalship (assuming that ultimately does become the UN's will) in line with the generally accepted notion that it is Asia's turn to provide the next Secretary General.

But there has been a subtle change in how New Zealand's position is now being framed which has escaped public attention.

The subtlety is best illustrated by considering the lobbying efforts of South Korean Foreign Minister Ban Ki-Moon to gain endorsements from UN members for his own candidacy. Ban Ki-Moon rolls into Auckland today for talks with Foreign Affairs Minister Winston Peters, just one stop in a four-nation lobbying tour which has already taken him to Peru and Argentina and will see him move on to Australia after his Auckland stop.

Ban was the front-runner in the recent straw poll conducted in strict secrecy behind closed doors among the 15-member Security Council. But no clear winner emerged as none of the four candidates was able to attract 15 positive votes.

Speculation suggests China vetoed the South Korean to ensure it did not upset its relationship with North Korea. But Ban is hanging in.

There has been no publicity accorded to Ban's visit.

Peters has not, or at least had not until my call yesterday, put out a press release. Neither had the Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade listed the visit in its regular updates of coming events. Nor was there a scheduled press conference.

When I asked Peters' office whether New Zealand would support Ban's candidacy the answer was suitably elliptical.

The issue would come up in discussions;

It was the Government's view that it was the Asia-Pacific's turn to have the Secretary-General's role;

If Ban achieved the role, New Zealand would not be unhappy about that.

Peters' office maintained it was not New Zealand's practice to declare where it would put its own support in multilateral contests. But that's a nonsense.

New Zealand openly preferred the Uruguay candidate over France's Pascal Lamy in the first lobbying round for the WTO's top job.

Others, such as former Singapore Prime Minister Goh Chok Tong, have been mentioned as likely to come forward if the stalemate continues. But Goh has yet to declare.

Australia has urged a more aggressive hunt. Bolton wants the new secretary-general to display qualities befitting a chief administrative officer.

By tradition that secretary-general is appointed from outside the five permanent members.

The last Asian to hold the job was Burma's U Thant (1961-1971). There is also a movement for an East European to be considered.

If the notion takes hold that an Asia-Pacific candidate is acceptable she could well publicly come into the frame.

Right now, of course, Clark is no doubt happy to be the New Zealand Prime Minister - end of story.

Or is it just the beginning?