KEY POINTS:
Helen Clark must feel she is catching a dose of the Thatchers - that political virus that engulfs outstanding leaders just when they come to believe no one else could possibly match them.
Such leaders - and Clark certainly is that - find it quite extraordinary when the political tide goes against them.
Australia's John Howard clung on far too long, instead of managing a transition to a successor while still holding office.
But although the ideological differences are stark, I believe Clark lines up more with the former British Prime Minister.
At her peak, the iron lady was unmatchable. No man in Margaret Thatcher's Cabinet could stand up to her (same as Clark).
Unlike Clark, Thatcher did not manage her Cabinet ministers by texting them commands from her cellphone. All Thatcher had to do was plonk her handbag on the Cabinet table, ministers got the message.
Midway through the four-week election campaign Clark, despite having demonstrated more competence, is losing.
Style has (so far) triumphed over substance in her contest against National's John Key as to who becomes our next Prime Minister.
She will be puzzled by the Herald's latest DigiPoll results.
Clark has crept marginally ahead of Key in the preferred Prime Minister stakes while potential voters rank her as more intelligent, competent and trustworthy.
But this time round her leadership abilities have not (so far) translated into an overwhelming surge of late support for Labour.
The DigiPoll still has National with a commanding lead at an election where the economy is the major issue concerning voters.
This will be worrying Labour's chief strategist (Clark) given the presidential emphasis in modern election campaigns.
Unless Clark has some major new announcement up her sleeve to entice more people toward her party, or the Nationals engulf themselves in more self-inflicted mini-scandals or become immersed in an avalanche of dirty tricks cooked up by their opponents (none of these options can be counted out), her political campaign will inevitably lose some momentum during the long weekend as New Zealanders simply switch off.
There is another major television debate to come where Clark will once again try to better Key.
But despite having much better substance to her own answers in the TVNZ/YouTube debate, most watchers declared Key the winner.
This all suggests that while a majority believe Clark is more competent to run the country, many Kiwis simply want a fresh face to lead New Zealand.
Key was positively chirpy when I observed him being interviewed by Paul Holmes at Newstalk ZB's leadership breakfast in Auckland on Thursday. His performance was at times low-key but firm and overladen with considerable humour as he shamelessly spruiked Holmes olive oil to joint mirth, in among the more serious points.
His relaxed mode surprised some business people who took it as a good omen that he was feeling confident about National's campaign.
Clark doesn't do humour well. But she has gravitas which will inevitably come to the fore at her own leadership breakfast debate next Friday.
It's also inevitable that voters' attention will be diverted by the other major contest - Barack Obama versus John McCain - with the US presidential election timed just days ahead of our election.
If Obama wins the generation shift will be palpably obvious - a factor that could lift Key's campaign.
If this was a first-past-the-post election, pundits would by now be declaring a landslide against Labour is looming. But there is still a possibility the party could cobble together a minority Government with the support of a multitude of minor parties, if National's clear lead does not persist when voters make the only choice that counts on November 8.
The major wild card however is Winston Peters. He started the campaign on the back foot with New Zealand First well down in the polls due to the hidden donations affair.
But despite the parliamentary theatrics and Act leader Rodney Hide's clear agenda to "get Peters out", none of the criminal allegations flung against the party in Parliament stuck. Watching images of Hide's hard-edged face, as he marched to Wellington police station earlier this year to lay a complaint against Peters, reminded me of one of London's Kray brothers pumped up for a gangland execution.
If Peters makes it back to Parliament, Hide the hunter will find himself prey.
