KEY POINTS:
Helen Clark - the blue-stockinged academic who shafted two former Prime Ministers on her way to the leadership of the Labour Party - will be alarmed at the Herald Digipoll putting National ahead by 17 points but will put a brave face on the result.
However, with National Leader John Key robbing her of her long reign as the country's preferred Prime Minister, she will not be able to pass off Labour's position as a third-term aberration.
Key has wasted no time in fanning the leadership flames by suggesting cabinet ministers Phil Goff and Steve Maharey - both seen as potential heirs to Clark's throne - are lining up for a leadership tilt.
If Goff and Maharey do join forces, they will be taking a lead from Key and Bill English, who set aside their own rivalries in the interests of joint ambition after pushing Don Brash out of National's leadership.
Labour President Mike Williams' admission on yesterday's TV One Agenda programme that he is looking at six to 10 possible caucus retirements to make way for new blood will also sharpen any possible contender's thinking.
If the long-time heir apparents don't make a move, the leadership baton is likely to pass to the next generation of Labour politicians like David Cunliffe or Shane Jones.
Clark knows her colleagues will calculate the odds over whether she can boost both Labour and herself up the poll ratings again, or whether they will face an all-time electoral rout next year if they don't take the opportunity to change the horses ahead of the election.
She capitalised on a similar poll free-fall to install Mike Moore in Sir Geoffrey Palmer's place as Prime Minister eight weeks before the 1990 election. National went on to win 67 seats to Labour's 29 under the first-past-the-post election.
On strict percentages, National scored 47.8 per cent to Labour's 35.1 per cent, with minor parties making up the balance.
MMP is a different affair, and Clark - after nearly eight years as PM - is becoming a mistress in the coalition negotiating arts.
There are suggestions that Labour will do deals with minority party leaders such as Winston Peters to ensure it can form a post-election government, even if National gets more votes.
But National is not without expertise in this area.
Williams played up Clark's MMP skills on Agenda but it's a nonsense to suggest that she is the only leader capable of forging a coalition.
She has been Labour's leader since 1993 and others might now want a shot at the leadership.
