KEY POINTS:
George, you owe me one!
That's what Helen Clark should say when she rolls up to the White House next month. Clark comes to town as the chief executive of the world's most powerful economic regime is under internal attack over his management of the Iraq war, his climate change record, budget deficits and the failure to stamp out al Qaeda in Afghanistan.
Clark's invitation arrived this week. At the time this column was written she was still waiting official confirmation. But, believe me, our Prime Minister is on her way.
She should not be so chuffed by her upcoming meeting that she blinds herself to the leverage she can exact for New Zealand as a result of the US President's declining popularity and her steadfastness as a political leader in offering him support to restabilise Iraq, despite her deeply ingrained distaste for his pre-emptive invasion.
Bush needs a few friends right now, and by any stretch of the imagination a progressive female prime minister who has overcome her party's deep loathing for a politician they see as an unprincipled warmonger and committed New Zealand military to Afghanistan and Iraq deserves a little payback.
Bush could start with offering Clark a joint press conference. Last time Clark was in Washington in 2002 she had time with Bush, his then Secretary of State Colin Powell and then National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and other senior members of the Administration. She was not seen then as important enough for George to grant her more than a photo opportunity with the New Zealand media.
Powell came out with his memorable statement that New Zealand and the US were "very, very good friends". But our countries were not allies, and New Zealand was clearly not important enough in a strategic sense to warrant a free trade deal like, say, Jordan.
Clark was hosted at US Government expense but the treatment had an element of the second-class about it - important enough to get the face-to-face meeting with Bush but with Clark having to relay to journalists the substance and colour of their talks.
Frankly, Clark deserves much better than this. But for any press conference to have meaning, something substantial needs to be on the agenda.
Clark could start with a soft but popular option of climate change. She wants New Zealand to become the world's first carbon-neutral country. But for that ambition to fly we need to piggy-back some of the outstanding new technologies that both countries are developing in the green space.
It would help New Zealand's positioning if Bush extended us an invitation to join the Asia Pacific climate change partnership, which has a strong science base.
Clark has no reason to rub in the fact that Bush did not sign the Kyoto Protocol. The US has now reached a tipping point on global warming and, with a presidential election pending next year, the Republicans do not want to be left on the political shelf.
We have shared strategic objectives in ensuring a stable Pacific. On that score Winston Peters deserves credit for refocusing Washington's attention on the valuable role New Zealand plays.
Free trade will inevitably be discussed but the real game will be what happens with Iraq. With Bush's allies facing mounting disapproval within their countries over the war, it may well fall to other countries to help Iraq in the stabilisation effort.
Clark is constrained by instinct and her colleagues from sending troops but the reality is it will take a combined international effort to stop that beleaguered country from turning into a feral cesspit if the Americans are forced to pull out for domestic reasons.
Is Clark in a position to help to broker a Kosovo-type solution, where the United Nations musters a strong international force, or could Nato play a role?
It's one of the issues on the minds of world leaders who do not want to see this incipient democracy fail. Clark will not want to say too much on this score ahead of her Washington meeting, but the fact that it is occurring far earlier than officials had hoped offers us an opportunity to punch above our weight.
Clark should use the opportunity to play the interlocutory role she does well.
Bush should be man enough to accept any help he can get in international forums even if from a stroppy New Zealand woman.
