KEY POINTS:
John Key's comparative youth will enable him to present a generational shift (even if it is really only half a click) against Helen Clark.
He's mid-40s to her mid-50s; telegenic and blessed with his own hair (Brash's comb-over was not a sexy look), and probably - though this has yet to be tested - sufficiently ruthless to take on Clark at her own game. He will need to develop that political killer instinct fast.
Key's late arrival to the Deloitte/Management magazine Top 200 awards at a black tie dinner on Thursday night sparked lots of speculation among the assembled business power-brokers who clearly see him as one of them. Sufficiently so that Fletcher Building's Jonathan Ling got ahead of himself by referring to Key as the Opposition leader.
Key is not stupid enough to let himself be brought down by Nicky Hager's claims that he should join Brash at the parliamentary bus stop because leaked emails prove he knew about Exclusive Brethren offers to fund third party campaigns to help National's electoral chances well in advance of previous admissions.
His response: "I did not open the email" is right out of the Bill Clinton school of plausible deniability which brought us, "I did not inhale" and "I did not have sexual relations with that woman Monica Lewinsky".
Clark is the deadly player Key must beat if he is not to join Bill English and Brash as another National Party political scalp on her belt.
This will be a far greater test of his political competence than ousting Brash in a bloodless coup, or, facing down English's attempt to make his own political souffle rise again.
NZ politicians, particularly those who stayed home while their peers built international careers, tend to be envious of any interloper who wants to march into a top job without paying his/her dues.
Particularly when they are sufficiently well-connected to organise their own election money-men from among wealthy NZ business people associated with the Sir Roger Douglas and Ruth Richardson reform eras.
Brash, a right-wing interloper himself, never quite understood this. He also failed to balance, sufficiently, the interests of the cache of old school National Party MPs he inherited from English who were horrified at his Act party instincts and those he brought in at the 2005 election to even the score.
Key is Brash's anointed political successor. He was in on the secret that Brash intended to stand down rather than wait to be pushed out in a caucus coup. He was sufficiently confident of Brash's timing to travel to Britain and make a quick study of David Cameron, the new Conservative leader, who is beginning to present an attractive urban face for the Tories, but be home for the action.
Key is also the National Party's preferred successor.
Despite his relative political newbie status, he had sufficient smarts to take on board advice earlier this year by senior party figures not to be spooked by the English camp into making an ill-considered early run against Brash that could have blown up in his face and jeopardised his long-term ambitions.
The price he has paid for keeping his head down is that his political opponents can now spin the line that no one knows what he stands for. The emphasis when he takes over from Brash tomorrow will centre on an ambitious economic future for New Zealand tempered by a respect for the role of the state in delivering health, education and welfare. His promoters hope that will enable him to gather up centrist votes - particularly women.
His caucus allies are promoting him as an aspirational leader, a classic rag-to-riches story who celebrates success but still has enough of the State house boy about him to present a compassionate face to those who lack his own energy and drive.
