Every day we have to make hundreds of decisions. Some are as simple as choosing what sandwich to eat or what pet to buy, others are more complicated and come loaded with moral consequences. Should I sleep with my boss? Should I believe in God? Should I dob in the dope-smoking neighbours? They're all tricky judgment calls to make. So it's no wonder people have sought to delegate decision-making and shirk their responsibilities since the dawn of time.
We've asked the gods, we've asked the tarot cards, we've asked the life coaches ... The bottom line is that decision-making is hard - so why not get someone else to do it for us? In the 70s, as in Luke Rhinehart's novel The Dice Man, the favoured method to absolve responsibility was the dice. All you had to do was roll a double-six and you'd be heading to parts unknown on the back of a motorbike.
Times have changed and today, if we want to let fate determine our actions, we can let technology decide. Thanks to an array of evolving websites and internet-based communities, we are able to let the internet take the sting out of making our minds up.
In a few months, a new decision-making site, Hunch.com, will launch (although you can sign up for a preview now). In a nutshell, Hunch aims to provide answers to problems, concerns or dilemmas, on hundreds of topics. Hunch's responses are based on the collective knowledge of the Hunch community: you input information and the site software uses that content to make decisions. Content is narrowed down by a specially-created algorithm to cater specifically for your likes and preferences, based on a profile you provide. The site is designed so that every time it's used, it learns something new and is aimed at saving its users "strenuous cognitive labour".
If you believe the blurb, it's the democratisation of decision-making. Its founders theorise that collective decision-making is superior to individual decision-making. Ask Hunch, "what should I have for breakfast?" and it asks you a series of questions and ascertains from the answer what cereal you are likely to prefer.
While other question-answering sites like WikiAnswers and Yahoo!Answers rely on threads of answers and are the equivalent of screaming towers of Babel ringing with voices of hundreds of bored, opinionated geeks, Hunch hopes to shine through the information murk with one true voice. "Hunch asks you questions to find out what you're like and what you like," says co-founder Caterina Fake, who previously set up the online photography bank Flickr and was named on Time magazine's list of the world's 100 most influential people in 2006. "It creates a "taste profile" of you and people like you, which combine with topic-specific questions to deliver a hunch just for you. We'll get to know the user in the simplest possible way, then help them make decisions."
Currently, the site is being developed and has around 200 invited users - the idea is that the more people that use it, the better it will get. The algorithm Hunch uses as its mathematical framework was built by a team of MIT computer scientists with backgrounds in machine learning, but it is users who will ultimately determine the quality of content and decisions it provides. "Users tend to contribute knowledge to topics they know, and extract knowledge from topics they don't know as well," says Kelly Ford, marketing vice president.
"That give and take is really the whole point of Hunch: to let many people benefit from the knowledge and cognitive work of others, to help people make smart, concrete decisions." Fake admits she is unsure of Hunch's ultimate potential. "I anticipate users will surprise us by doing things with the software we don't expect." So what can we expect when Hunch opens its doors to the general web populace? It provides recommendations on topics like health, finance and "what kind of rock band will I like?" It even guides users through decisions like "Should I believe in God?" to an answer based on their individual beliefs and theological views. However, it's doubtful Barack Obama will be consulting it when he plots his economic policy.
Despite the technology, Hunch feels like a self-diagnosis branch chart and, at the mercy of user input, it contains plenty of inanity. If you want to know whether you could fight a bear and win without putting your life in danger, Hunch has the answer. You can also find out if you are smarter than Sarah Palin (almost certainly) and discover what martial arts weapon is best for you.
While mankind waits for Hunch to shoulder responsibility for its decisions, there are other sites to turn to. Like WikiAnswers.com which, earlier this year, announced that its users had asked their 10-millionth question.
Unlike its sister site, Wikipedia, WikiAnswers uses an online community to answer specific questions while monitors keep check on the quality of the information provided. In 2007 it was the fastest-growing site in the United States. Is it any good at making decisions for you? That depends on whether you are comfortable letting the kind of person who asks "what is the body for?", "who is the weakest man alive?" and who admits "I recently committed a serious crime, what should I do?" pronounce on your life.
WikiAnswers is popular but it's no oracle, you can't help but feel that behind it there is an army of teenagers, cramming homework and hoping someone can tell them the names of the three types of tree that grow in the African rainforest. While WikiAnswers employs people to adjudicate what happens on its pages, Yahoo!Answers is more of a lottery for decision-makers, a place where people can toss their problems into cyberspace and let the world pass judgment. It is responsibility-shirking taken to its logical conclusion in the information age, a place where, at any one time, you can log on and ask an assortment of strangers to pontificate on your life or alternatively play puppet-master with other people's dilemmas.
Recent Yahoo gems include "what drink gives you the most powerful belches?" and "where do I find male models? I'd like to date one". Inane? Maybe. Fun? Possibly. If Yahoo!Answers was wearing a T-shirt printed with the words "I'm with Stupid", the arrow on the apparel would be pointing to Answerbag.com, a repository of stupidity, stocked by stupid people answering stupid questions. Hot topics here include "can you remember what you had for dinner two days ago?" and "if I defecated on my desk, how long would it take for bacteria to cover the whole surface?"
Place responsibility for your actions in the hands of answerbag.com users and be prepared for the consequences. In essence, the site is a social network with users asking each other questions to elicit conversation threads, like the deliciously ironic "what mindless activity keeps you from dwelling on your troubles?" While all these sites claim a question solution function, SideTaker.com takes the web-based decision-making process a stage further and gives users' actions moral validity. The log-in community sits in judgment on arguments and domestic disagreements.
Rowing couples can post their sides of a specific argument on the site and users will adjudicate on who is right and who is wrong. You can also post individual gripes. Confess that your wife's inability to stack the dishwasher correctly riles you, and SideTaker users will tell you whether you are being unreasonable and what you should do to remedy the situation (for the record, according to the site you are petty and if it annoys you that much, show her how to fill it properly).
The one thing these sites have in common is a reliance on user input, and when it comes to their effectiveness as decision-making tools, that is their downfall. If you invite all-comers to proffer advice, much of what you get back is opinion. "In the old days, if you wanted answers you'd sit around a table and ask people or go to the pub and talk to people," says technology commentator Andrew Keen. "But we are increasingly fragmented so we are trying to reinvent community, for the most part unsuccessfully, on the internet.
If you are looking at a site for guidance on whether or not you should believe in God, and that site has employed 1000 professors of theology to go through the branches of questioning, then it is credible. But using collective input is always going to be fallible because those giving input can always have their own agendas." Keen points to a future beyond web 2.0 where advanced artificial intelligence determines fate for is.
"The next stage in the evolution of the web is predicted to be a concept called the semantic web, a networked artificial intelligence that knows us as much as we know it. Hunch is more web 2.0 than the semantic web. The most reliable content, in my opinion, is still curated." So until the semantic web evolves, it seems the dice is just as effective ...
The truth according to cybernauts
What is demi-vegetarian?
Demi-vegetarians don't eat red meat or poultry, but they do eat fish, eggs, vegetarian cheese, and milk-based products. This is not true vegetarianism, although it is probably easiest for those just starting to become veggie.
Do snakes have legs?
Snakes do have legs. They are inside them. They are vestigial structures, evolutionary leftovers.
Are you required to give a gift for a second marriage?
It is normal to give a gift for any wedding. Keep your gift simple and within your budget. Most second marriages have the usual household goods, so try a nice certificate for a dinner or a specialised photo album or picture frame where they can start their memories as a new family.
What can you do if you do not have a boyfriend?
The answer depends on the age you are. If at your age, girls are having boyfriends, then it should not be too difficult for you. Take part in activities which boys also do. Hang round with friends who have brothers, etc, etc. Be good to be around and you will see that it just happens.
Are Sagittarius and Aquarius compatible?
Answer 1: Sagittarius and Aquarius have a lot in common. Both are outward-looking and interested in the wider world, Sagittarius probably more in terms of travel and thought, Aquarius probably more in terms of social action. So basically, yes, they are compatible. However, the Sun sign is only one element in the birth-chart of a person and you should never base a judgment on just this one element. Look at the whole horoscope and see how things compare. Answer 2: Let me tell you what I have studied while in psychology class. Astrology is called pseudopsychology which means that it is fake. If you are a Sagittarius and you want to be with an Aquarius, then you go ahead and be happy.
How many years away are we from being able to colonise another planet?
I've heard that we have all the technology to be able to do it and that it's just a matter of logistics at this point.
Why did Hitler become a vegetarian?
Hitler was actually not a vegetarian at all. That is a myth. Rynn Berry, an educator and historian, wrote a pamphlet about this and later expanded it into a book.
Is it possible for it to snow and lightning to flash at the same time?
Yes it is. I've actually been in a bad blizzard, walking to work, and was startled by a blinding flash of light. I thought my eyes were playing tricks on me, you know, the blowing snow, wind and cold, but seconds later I heard thunder. It can be quite fascinating but also kind of spooky. Just keep in mind, precipitation takes many forms, but they all start up in the sky, where the atmosphere can be favourable to induce storms. Also, believe it or not, thunderstorms are quite frequent during snowfalls. It's just that we don't notice the lightning because it isn't bright enough, and the snow muffles the sound of the thunder.
- INDEPENDENT
If you ask me...
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