The UN’s climate-action focus is on financial reform to help developing countries manage their responses.
Simon Wilson is an award-winning senior writer covering politics, the climate crisis, transport, housing, urban design and social issues. He joined the Herald in 2018.
OPINION
Why don’t we all get a vote? Given the enormous global consequences of the American election tomorrow, the least they coulddo is let the citizens of the world have a say.
All the wars they might or might not start, or make worse, or end. All the trade issues. And then there’s the climate crisis. The UN tells us now, right now, is critical. They’ve been saying it for years, but that just means it’s even more true now than it ever was.
In August, the Washington Post has reported, Trump asked the fossil fuel industry for a billion dollars at a fundraising dinner at his Florida home. He promises to expand oil and gas drilling and undermine the move to renewables.
Vice-President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom visit wildfire-struck areas of California in September 2024.
If he wins any chance of keeping global warming under 2C in the next 10 years, let alone 1.5C, will almost certainly disappear.
Harris went to COP28, the global climate conference in Dubai last year, and declared: “The urgency of this moment is clear, the clock is no longer just ticking, it is banging and we must make up for lost time. And we cannot afford to be incremental. We need transformative change and exponential impact.”
She also said, “In order to keep our critical 1.5 degree-Celsius goal within reach, we must have the ambition to meet this moment, to accelerate our ongoing work, increase our investments, and lead with courage and conviction.”
It raises an uncomfortable question. Who’s “we”, Kamala?
Harris used to be a climate champion. As a senator she co-sponsored the Green New Deal. As vice-president she used her casting vote in the Senate in 2022 to usher in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), widely regarded as the single biggest climate-action measure in American history. Not a single Republican voted for the IRA and Trump wants to cancel its funding.
But while American oil and gas production reached record levels under Trump, that record was broken by Joe Biden. They’ve never drilled more than they’re drilling now, and Harris boasted about it during her TV debate with Trump in September.
Could Harris become a climate champion again?
US Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at COP28, the 2023 UN climate conference in Dubai: "“The urgency of this moment is clear, the clock is no longer just ticking, it is banging and we must make up for lost time." Photo / AFP
The stakes are really high. Last year was by far the hottest year on record and carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere were both at record levels, despite supposed commitments to lower them.
But that’s not the heart of it. The stakes are so high now because time is running out: the key deadline is not 2050, as our own Government and many others like to focus on, but 2030 and 2035.
As the UN’s climate change chief Simon Stiell said last week, “Greenhouse gas emissions [net] need to be cut 43% by 2030, compared to 2019 levels.” By 2035, it’s 60%. “This is critical to limiting global heating to 1.5°C this century to avert the worst climate impacts. Every fraction of a degree matters, as climate disasters get rapidly worse.”The next global climate conference, COP29, starts next week in Baju, Azerbaijan. Stiell said existing climate plans “fall miles short of what’s needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country”.
But he also said, “By contrast, much bolder new national climate plans can not only avert climate chaos – done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation.”
Hold on to hope, because the change we need is possible. Will Harris make it happen? Here are four ways she could. Mainly, they’re about money.
1. Cough up for ‘loss and damage’ like you promised
Most global warming is caused by the emissions of developed countries, but the worst impacts are mostly felt by everyone else.
The “loss and damage fund”, an initiative spearheaded by small island and African nations, was set up in Dubai last year to provide compensation for this, with initial pledges totalling just over NZ$1 billion.
But the fund has failed.
Some countries gave very little: the US pledged NZ$29 million; Japan not quite $17m. The contributions are meant to be annual but only Austria and South Korean have committed anything this year. Many wealthy countries minimise their disaster relief, preferring instead to invest in renewable energy projects which they can make money from.
And even the supposed target amounts are woefully inadequate. The World Bank estimates climate-induced loss and damage will cost as much as $970b by 2030. Per year.
Cop28 climate change Daron Parton cartoon December 1, 2023
If President Harris does want to take the climate lead with “courage and conviction”, beefing up the loss and damage fund would be a good place to start.
2. Make the American climate goal great again
While almost all countries have agreed to make big cuts to emissions, COP conferences have left it to each one to determine how and when they do this, and to report their own progress. They call this their “nationally developed contributions”, or NDCs.
You’ve spotted the loopholes, right?
Stiell said last week that countries have made “only fractional progress compared to what is expected”. Back in April, he said the G20 – the world’s 20 leading economic powers which are together responsible for 80% of global emissions – “urgently need to step up”.America is number one on that list. Its NDC commits to a 50%-52% reduction in emissions by 2030, but the country is not remotely on track to achieve that. It also has a net-zero target for 2050 which, like many countries, including New Zealand, it can hide behind.
New NDCs are due next year and Schiell has proposed an ABC test.
They must be ambitious, which means economy-wide and covering all greenhouse gases, in ways that will “keep the 1.5-degree target alive”.
They must be broken down into sectors and gases. And they must be credible, which means “backed up by substantive regulations, laws, and funding”.
ABC, Stiell added, means having strong 2030 targets and a “time horizon” of 2035. That’s code for “stop talking about net zero 2050″, which most countries currently do.
If President Harris means it when she says, “We cannot afford to be incremental,” adopting and acting on a world-leading NDC is a great way to do it.
3. Haul those financiers into line
Even when they help, often they don’t really help. Developing countries currently pay $670b a year on debt financing to the wealthy developed world. That’s money they could spend preparing for and preventing climate change.
Barbados Prime Minister Mia Mottley and Kenyan President William Ruto have led a campaign to change this. They want lenders to look at cancelling debt. And instead of loans and private investment which require “competitive” rates of return, they want grants and very-low-interest loans.
Kenyan President William Ruto, who wants to reform global climate finance. Photo / Haiyun Jiang / The New York Times
Stiell supports them. He’s called for debt relief and a “quantum leap” in climate finance, with new sources of revenue like a tax on shipping emissions.
“Every day Finance Ministers, CEOs, investors, and climate bankers and development bankers direct trillions of dollars. It’s time to shift those dollars,” he told a finance industry event in London in April.
Finance reform will be high on the agenda in Azerbaijan. If Harris wants that “transformative change” with an “exponential impact”, this is how to get it.
The World Resources Institute called it “the single largest step the world can take towards achieving our global climate goals”.
The most obvious ways to do it are offshore wind farms, of which America already has three, with more being built, and domestic solar. The price of solar power in the US fell by about 90% between 2010 and 2020.
This would be a relatively easy achievement for President Harris.
Commit to it, show the world it works – and creates a lot of jobs – and help the world to follow. If she wins tomorrow, will she do that? There’s nothing wrong with holding on to hope.
