Editorial: Wahid must resign to prevent chaos

It is time for Indonesian President Abdurrahman Wahid to bow to the inevitable and resign. If he does not, his vast nation could be plunged into bloody conflict that has the potential to destabilise the entire region.

The ailing Muslim cleric can no longer serve any useful purpose as Indonesia's leader. He does not have the confidence of Parliament, in which 500 of the 700 members are united in their criticism of his performance. They have twice censured him, and the next logical step is a move to have the People's Legislative Assembly convene impeachment proceedings.

His resignation might persuade the parliamentarians that nothing further would be served by seeking to have him impeached, although it would be tempting for his opponents to proceed on the basis that they could constrain him from rebuilding a power base while hearings are being held.

Mr Wahid's warning of a civil emergency was nothing more than a desperate attempt to stave off impeachment and cling to power. It shows little regard for the good of a country beset by economic problems and sectarian differences. He has used the sectarian card, warning that any attempt to oust him could lead to the break-up of the country.

That, unfortunately, is no idle threat. It is something of a miracle that Indonesia has remained intact. It consists of more than 13,500 islands spread over more than two million square kilometres, held together only by water and a system of regional government appointed from Jakarta. While 90 per cent of the country is Muslim, a common religion alone cannot guarantee unity.

President Wahid is now a symbol of division. There is no possibility that he can bind the nation together. Whether anyone is capable of doing that is a matter of considerable conjecture.

Vice-President Megawati Sukarnoputri probably stands the best chance of putting Indonesia back on the path to stability and economic recovery. Wisely, she is doing nothing that could give rise to charges by Wahid's supporters that she is seizing power from him. Equally, by refusing to respond to the President's suggestion that he "transfer power" to her, she has kept on side with his detractors.

The daughter of Indonesia's founding strongman, Megawati has shown a high level of political astuteness throughout her term as Vice-President. Had the leadership been decided by popular vote she would now be President. Undoubtedly her decision not to force the issue of the presidency avoided the prolonging of widespread civil unrest and violence. She could, in fact, have rallied her supporters and probably prevailed. However, she has bided her time and the result may be that, when her time does come, she is in an even stronger position to govern.

She has been described as "enigmatic," an adjective that says more about her political depth than observers' failure to get a firm handle on her. Indonesian politics are as complex as the country itself and Megawati starts with two huge impediments. She does not have a military background with its attendant power base built up over a career in the defence forces. And she is a woman in an overwhelmingly Islamic society where leadership might be seen as the province of men. In spite of that she appears to have both the support of the military and an acceptance that her leadership could not be opposed on religious grounds.

So President Wahid would not create a dangerous power vacuum were he to stand down. The People's Legislative Assembly could install Megawati in a seamless transition. It does, however, require him to go gracefully. That means he would have to call on his supporters in the Nahdatul Ulama organisation to accept the inevitable and, most importantly, to rein in paramilitary guards who are talking of suicide and "dare to kill" squads.

The best of all outcomes would be for the President, in resigning, to call on his people to support a government of national solidarity whose principal aims were the restoration of the economy and the peaceful resolution of autonomy claims. That seems a faint hope while his sole focus is on the retention of power and avoidance of impeachment.