KEY POINTS:
The Green Party is nothing if not direct. As Labour groans with mid-term opinion poll discomfort, its direct supporting parties emphasise their fickleness by reminding us that if the Labour ship sinks, they have a publicly-stated commitment to swim to the next vessel, National. For initial talks, at least. The Greens, who were snubbed by Helen Clark after the election in 2005 because New Zealand First and United Future offered a non-Green road to government, find this all a bit rich. In a Parliament as divided as any in modern history, Labour has lost MP Taito Philip Field and United Future has lost Gordon Copeland. On standard parliamentary votes, the Government must fight for a majority issue by issue.
At its weekend conference, co-leader Jeanette Fitzsimons rightly pointed to the Green's policy of abstaining on confidence votes in Parliament as the reason for Helen Clark remaining in power. Yet the Greens remain on the outer, powerbrokers who have eschewed the baubles of ministerial life. It was good that the party reminded the public how brittle the Labour-led Government is and how important the Greens will be if that Government is to last to the planned general election late next year.
National strategists say there will be only four enduring political forces - their party, Labour, the Maori Party and the Greens. No matter how far ahead the polls tell us National is now, it expects to have to negotiate its way to power after the election. Thus the attendance of its environment spokesman, Nick Smith, at the Greens conference, a move that prompted the ever-equality-conscious Greens to invite Labour, too. What the visitors heard was harsh, in equal measure. Labour was criticised for its lack of spending on climate change policies and its pandering to the middle class. There was a vow not to be cosy with Labour in the lead-up to the election as occurred in 2005. National received the benefit of the doubt to a degree, because it had made some good noises under John Key, although without detail or substance, but its carbon emissions target was ridiculed.
The Greens have never been easy to get alongside. It is part of their makeup to be the hedgehog of small parties, scuttling along inoffensively, performing their part in the political ecosystem but defensive against all comers. Ms Fitzsimons made the case for its wariness of others: "We cannot be bribed or bought. We don't do trade-offs, where we vote against our policy on one issue in order to gain another." It smacks a little of being holier than thou in an MMP environment that green lobbyists did so much to bring about, and where compromise will be required. But the Greens now know that both centre left and centre right must endure such preachiness in the next 18 months if opinion polls keep their party at about 7 per cent of the vote and in third place.
What do the prickly Greens want? Not simply the obvious carbon trading schemes and environmental initiatives. Ms Fitzsimons' party sees itself as the vehicle for the real strugglers, beneficiaries and others left aside in the rush by Labour to assist low-income workers.
For National, there would be thin pickings in a post-election negotiation with the Greens on these terms. As Mr Smith noted at the conference, there is a chasm between the National and Green social and economic platforms.
Labour's poor polling could precipitate a rising vote for the Greens as left-leaning voters write it off as a third-term Government without hope of salvation. In the second half of this parliamentary term, neither big party will get an easy ride from these Greens.
