KEY POINTS:
On the face of it, selecting Hillary Clinton as his running mate in the campaign to wrest the White House back into Democratic hands should be a no-brainer for Barack Obama.
The 46-year-old senator from Illinois became the presumptive Democrat Presidential nominee on Wednesday (NZT) when, on the
last day of primaries, he won Montana, giving him 2154 delegates, three dozen more than he needed to secure the nomination.
The victory follows one of the most sustained, bruising and bitter primary races in US history, in which contenders for the same party's nomination have traded rhetorical blows that at times made them seem to be from opposite sides of the political divide. The fact that, on most issues, there was very little policy daylight between them seemed to count for nothing. Both had their eyes on a place in history, as either the first woman or the first African-American to secure the presidency.
The result of the primary contest must be deeply galling for Clinton, who 18 months ago plainly regarded Obama's challenge as a minor obstacle between her and inevitable victory. But after her opponent's shock victory in Iowa on January 3, the Clinton campaign developed speed wobbles from which it never truly recovered.
To some extent her fortunes were influenced by media coverage that was not only fixated on Obama's charisma and oratorical gifts but was also arguably sexist. But she was the author of her own misfortune as well: she famously "misspoke" about her arrival in Bosnia under sniper fire and flunked key television debates. She was also vulnerable to charges that she carried baggage from the past - her husband, often seen on the hustings with her, was the most visible. As many as four out of five Americans believe the country is seriously on the wrong track and an electorate hungry for change may not want to add the name Clinton to a list that already reads Bush, Clinton, Bush.
It is that last factor that is driving the view of many Democrats that it would be a disaster if Obama selected Clinton as his running mate. That she said at the outset of the primary contest that "I'm in it to win it" and long ago ruled out the idea of an Obama-Clinton ticket were understandable tactics in the thick of the campaign. But Obama's victory, predictable for many weeks, was numerically indisputable for more than 48 hours before she conceded. Whether she intended it or not, she looked unwilling to yield the spotlight at a time when it should have belonged to him. This does not bespeak the team player Obama needs if he is to create the real change that has been his mantra.
Adding to the difficulty is the history of acrimony between the two camps: a senior Obama staffer called Hillary a monster and a couple of Bill Clinton's one-liners about Obama verged on the offensively racist. Obama's wife, Michelle, said she'd like to "rip [Bill's] eyes out" before adding "kidding". It's more dysfunctional family than dream team.
The complicating problem is that Obama has almost 17 million reasons to put Clinton on his ticket. She carried the big states that Obama will need if he is to prevail in November. And she did well with women, working-class voters and the elderly where Obama, popular among the affluent and well-educated, is most vulnerable. Nearly a quarter of Clinton supporters say they will back McCain instead of Obama in the general election. Finally, she is a formidable intellect and a seasoned political campaigner whose inclusion on the ticket would go a long way towards defending Obama against charges that he lacks the requisite experience to be Commander-in-Chief.
Under the circumstances it is hardly surprising that Obama spoke so highly of Clinton during his victory speech. Perhaps he was only keeping his options open. How he handles the matter will be an early and closely-watched test of his diplomatic mettle.
Clinton will need to show much more grace in defeat than she has so far. And Obama will need to convince a lot of Americans that a Vice-President whose spouse was one of last century's Presidents represents what his campaign slogan calls "change you can believe in".
