Editorial: Sign of lasting solution for Palestinians

Not much optimism greets the latest Middle East peace plan, the "road map" drafted by the United States in consultation with the United Nations, the European Union and Russia. Memories are too fresh of the previous effort, the Oslo accords, that also followed a US military incursion in Arab affairs. The first Gulf War had the support of more Arab Governments than this year's sequel, and it was an immediate response to aggression rather than contrived, as the latest war was, to demonstrate a new US strategy of "pre-emptive" security. Yet the Oslo negotiations failed at almost the last hurdle essentially because both sides overplayed their hand. What chance, therefore, that a serious bid for peace may be launched in the present climate while the US occupies Iraq?

None of the main protagonists sounds much committed to the idea. The Israeli Cabinet accepted the three-phase road map this week but with reservations. The new Palestinian Prime Minister, Mahmoud Abbas, said that if US President George Bush accepted the reservations it would be the end of the road map. Mr Bush has never been keen to preside over a Middle East negotiation. The road map owes more to the urgings of his closest ally, British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is anxious to prove that the war he supported could be a precursor to lasting peace.

And perhaps it could be. Sometimes it can be an advantage to begin a project like this with low expectations. It means that the most modest signs of progress will be recognised. The Israeli Cabinet's acceptance of the road map, for example, is that Government's first explicit endorsement of the idea of a Palestinian state. The dimensions of such a state, and the fate of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories of the West Bank and Gaza, are even further from being agreed than they were when the hopes of Oslo ended in failure at Camp David, but at least it is a start.

And at least the Israeli side is represented this time by a Likud Government that will be more readily trusted by its people to ensure their security concerns remain uppermost in negotiations. On the other side the Israelis will be dealing with a Palestinian leader much more to their liking than Yasser Arafat could ever be. But Mr Abbas does not enjoy the same confidence of his own people, who see him and his Cabinet as the choice of the US. Indeed, Washington did not publish the long-proposed road map until the Palestinian Legislative Council had approved a full Cabinet under Mr Abbas.

Mr Arafat remains the recognised leader of the fractious Palestinian politics, drawing 35 per cent approval to Mr Abbas' 3 per cent in a recent poll by the Palestine Centre for Policy and Survey Research. Much as the Israeli Government would like to sideline Mr Arafat, he will continue to be crucial to the success of any negotiations. For that reason international envoys - including New Zealand Foreign Minister Phil Goff this week - continue to talk to him.

Perhaps the greatest force for hope in the latest peace initiative is that Israel no longer enjoys a monopoly on the sympathy of the West. The intifada that followed the failure of Oslo has been a brutal business. But Palestinian suicide-bombings of Israeli civilians are not the only incidents that make an impression on world opinion nowadays. Israel's retribution - assassinations of suspected terrorists, systematic destruction of the Palestinian Authority, the continuing settlement of occupied land, together with the fences and roadblocks that constrain Palestinian life - is a visible part of the problem that breeds so much resentment in the Arab world and insecurity for the West.

All countries like ours have a direct interest in the road map on the table. Optimism might be hard to summon but there are signs all sides now accept that a lasting solution cannot deny Palestinians a state.