Of New Zealand's two main political parties, National has always been the more ruthless in disposing of leaders who lose general elections. Thus, the party's annual conference in Christchurch involved, first and foremost, an examination of Jenny Shipley's progress as Leader of the Opposition. This was the canvas upon which Mrs Shipley would sketch a fightback which would condemn the Government to defeat in 2002. And it was the stage upon which she had to begin the task of reinventing herself.
Surviving to lead that fightback will entail nothing less. A lofty and disdainful image must be jettisoned, along with the free-market dogma of the 1990s. In the end, Mrs Shipley passed the conference examination with alacrity - and was then further encouraged by a One News-Colmar Brunton poll which had National closing the gap on Labour to just one percentage point.
Mrs Shipley appears to have recognised that for her image an admission of error is the most direct route to humility. Therefore, the conference was the platform for a concession that the National Government had erred on superannuation and student loans. If this was pitched at the old and young, there was also a reapplication of National's brand aimed at those of the middle class who had strayed from the party.
The "dumbing down" of education standards and the placement of a Treaty of Waitangi clause into health restructuring legislation came in for particular criticism. The Employment Relations Act is a clear point of difference between the two parties, and National's marathon show of resistance was designed to highlight the divide. The points thus scored could not be negated even by Mrs Shipley firing blanks at the Prime Minister over the Dover Samuels affair, a misjudgment that stirred memories of past blunders.
Mrs Shipley knows, however, that she will be excused only so many mistakes. If there have been few murmurs about challenges to her leadership, that may be testimony to the curiously downbeat attitude of the heir apparent, Bill English. At the conference, he went so far as to compliment Mrs Shipley on the cohesiveness of the Opposition. Notably, Mr English's speech was received in a restrained manner. This might indicate that his standing within the party is lower than is commonly assumed. He has been overshadowed by Michael Cullen on finance matters and his early concession of defeat on election-night was not what the party faithful wanted to hear.
Mr English can, however, bide his time. His future is inextricably linked to the progress of Mrs Shipley's reinvention. Perhaps he has deliberately stood back, especially since her heart attack. If a leadership challenge is to eventuate, it is unlikely until the middle of next year. That would be the logical time to judge Mrs Shipley's prospects of winning the next election. Sometimes, the most appealing of policies will struggle to gain a foothold if a party's leadership is flawed. In such circumstances, change becomes inevitable. If Mrs Shipley fails a test in mid-2001, it would allow a successor sufficient time to win over the electorate.
National's showing in the One News-Colmar Brunton poll confirms that the party need not reconcile itself to a lengthy period of exile. The Government, for its part, has put a brave face on the poll, suggesting that the most electorally damaging part of its programme - the workplace law and a lift in income tax for those earning over $60,000 - are now behind it. But potentially poisonous issues remain. Not least is the newly bestowed potential for unions to cause unpopular disruption. Paid parental leave, matrimonial property and the reaction to Australia's undercutting of our company tax rate next July could all erode Government support. As well, a sluggish economy and lower tax take loom as impediments to the Government's spending programme.
Mrs Shipley must exploit such issues while enunciating policies that reclaim National's support base. At the same time, she must continue to close the gap of 15 percentage points that separates her from Helen Clark as preferred prime minister. That gap must still alarm National. The party, emboldened by Mrs Shipley's conference message, will tolerate it for now. But if the gap does not close and Mrs Shipley stumbles, there will surely be a fall.
<i>Editorial:</i> Shipley will have to watch her step
AdvertisementAdvertise with NZME.