Sometimes, by luck or good management, a Government whose time seems to be running out defies the odds and wins the next election. The British Conservative Party did so in 1992, the National Party did the same here in 1996, thanks to an unexpected coalition with New Zealand First, and the Australian Liberal-National Coalition was returned last year, largely for its stand on "boat people".
In the British and New Zealand examples, the re-elected Governments had an unhappy final term, beset by ministerial embarrassments, political mistakes and a cantankerous electorate awaiting its next chance to vote. The pattern seems to be emerging in Australia, too.
Already, the Howard Government's remarkable re-election last year has had its gloss removed by the discovery that the campaign's most powerful story - of boat people hurling their children into the sea - was based on a misleading photograph. The complete picture showed their boat was sinking. Recriminations continue about how the fiction came to be propagated, and this week a Senate committee began a hearing into what ministers knew, or ought to have known.
Then, on the eve of the Queen's visit, the Government became embroiled in accusations that the Governor-General, Peter Hollingworth, had dealt too leniently with cases of child abuse brought to him as an Anglican archbishop. Prime Minister John Howard withstood pressure to have him replaced, even though some of the Governor-General's comments to Australian television did not encourage confidence that he had updated his views.
As if those troubles were not enough, one of Mr Howard's close friends and political associates then took it upon himself to accuse a highly respected and openly homosexual High Court judge, Justice Michael Kirby, of soliciting sex from underage male prostitutes. The accusation, made under parliamentary privilege, turned out to be based on a false record of the use of a Commonwealth car. The muckraker, Senator Bill Heffernan, evidently is known for this sort of politics. He has apologised to Justice Kirby and lost the post of cabinet secretary. Both he and the Prime Minister have been formally censured by the Senate.
Justice Kirby is well known on this side of the Tasman, where he is frequently a welcome convention speaker. He has handled the despicable accusation with typical strength, and suggested that Senator Heffernan owes Australia an apology, too.
In a sour political climate like this, all things can be poisoned. The more mundane disputes and misdemeanours of business, public figures, even sports performers, seem to add up to a general social malaise. In Australia lately there have been hearings into the collapses of the HIH insurance group and the telecommunications firm OneTel. There are still stories emerging of corruption in the New South Wales police and the Melbourne construction industry. Even a scandal involving Australian Rules captain Wayne Carey and the wife of a close friend is said to add to the sense of disgust and distrust.
It would be unfair to blame Mr Howard, or his Government, for all these troubles, but he needs to attend to the national mood. When he looks at the fate of those Governments in Britain and New Zealand that cheated fate for a final term, he might conclude it is in his party's interest to attend to the mood urgently. When Governments outlast their natural life they fall more heavily. Both the Conservatives in Britain and National here are struggling to recover much traction against Labour Governments elected with a vengeance.
If the Australian Coalition is to avoid the same fate it will need to answer the country's frustrated desire for change. At the very least, Mr Howard should take the step widely expected of him before the end of this term and hand over to his heir apparent. The Treasurer, Peter Costello, has been waiting in the wings so long that his succession might not now satisfy the mood, but it would be a start.
New Zealand can attest to the benefits of a political catharsis, and can only hope that its closest economic relation finds refreshing leadership soon.
<i>Editorial:</i> Poisonous politics threaten Howard
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