Editorial: No need for paranoia over flu epidemic

The Director of Public Health's advice not to overreact to the threat posed by severe acute respiratory syndrome made eminent sense. Already, however, there are signs that paranoia is taking root. Chinese delegates have been asked to stay away from the Sister Cities convention in Masterton, and in Whangarei a man has been shut out of his business by staff who fear the repercussions of his just-completed trip through China, Vietnam and Hong Kong. And in Wellington and Auckland, many pharmacies are running low on face masks. All this before the pneumonia-type virus has even arrived in New Zealand. All this when Sars has yet to prove itself a lethal pandemic.

It is instructive to put the toll from the disease - as of yesterday, an estimated 78 deaths and 2151 people ill - in context. There can be no comparison with the Black Death, which killed between 30 and 40 per cent of the population of Europe when it arrived there from Mongolia in 1347. Or the Spanish flu, which killed between 40 million and 50 million people in 1918.

It cannot be compared with the Asian flu and Hong Kong flu pandemics of 1956-57 and 1967-68 that killed a combined 4.5 million people. There is not even a parallel with run-of-the-mill influenza, another respiratory disease, which kills between 250,000 and 500,000 people every year. Generally, Sars is lethal only to those with an underlying medical condition, such as diabetes, that makes them susceptible. And it can be passed on only by close person-to-person contact.

Sars, nonetheless, is an indicator of the growing peril posed by infectious diseases. The threat cannot be eradicated, only managed. Like influenza, Sars originates in the densely populated provinces of southern China, where farmers live cheek by jowl with ducks, pigs and chickens.

New strains of viral diseases generally emerge by mutation as they hop back and forth between people and their animals. The microbes are highly adaptive. Alarm bells start ringing, and vaccine-makers go into action, when the virus is passed from one person to another - and is spread worldwide via airliner.

This phenomenon, in the world's most populous region, is not about to cease. Every year, a new strain jumps from flocks of domesticated animals. Only the degree of threat varies. That makes it especially important that international health authorities are on the ball.

Unfortunately, this is not the case. Embarrassment makes many countries reluctant to report new manifestations of infectious diseases. The reporting of the HIV virus that causes Aids was, for example, extremely tardy. This did nothing to help the scientists who then struggled to identify the virus. Now, China is, quite justifiably, being criticised for being slow to announce cases of Sars, and for initially barring a World Health Organisation team from visiting Guangdong province, where the virus first appeared.

Such secrecy has no place when the implications are so dramatic, both internationally and individually, for countries such as New Zealand, with our significant tourism industry. The world health community seems to be congratulating itself on the speed of its response to Sars and the degree of co-operation. But it can do better. An international agreement on the early reporting of new manifestations of such diseases must be one result of this outbreak.

Probably, as the Director of Public Health suggests, there will be one or two cases of Sars in New Zealand. At that point, those most at risk will be health workers and those living with the infected person. Others have no reason to be unduly alarmed. They should take sensible precautions and be aware of the symptoms. Anything more strident accords Sars a fear factor it has not earned.