The phoney war is over. Simultaneously yesterday the leaders of the Labour and National Parties fired their best shots in the formal, if contrived, launches of the general election campaign. Though they are just two of many parties that will contest this election they will be, as always, the dogs rather than the tails of any coalition formed after July 27. The humble yet high-polling Labour hopes to break MMP's curse - win an overall majority and be both.
Yesterday's launches were instructive. The Prime Minister made much of her Government's good start through its first term. That terminology was deliberately reserved, pragmatic and long-term. Her conclusion included this: In one term, we can lay the foundation. In the next, we can begin to build the house on top of it. Note the begin to build. Even after six years in office she would not be allowing herself a house-warming party. That cautious vision can be read two ways: quiet, steady confidence in a long-term coherent strategy or, as her opponents would have it, no vision beyond a functional design and no urgency in creating a dream home for New Zealand.
Patience and perseverance are plainly going to be themes of Labour's re-election pitch. Uninspiring, perhaps, but playing to the steady-as-she-goes stability the opinion polls say the electorate is seeking. A key example: on Treaty of Waitangi claims, Helen Clark is painting National's goal of setting a final deadline for settlements as a policy of haste, betraying insecurity and a one-dimensional view of the ongoing relationship between peoples.
Labour's pledge card for this campaign is unremarkable, the wording, as last time, precise in its imprecision. Working with all sectors to create an innovative, growing economy with more jobs is akin to pledging itself in favour of fresh air. Other pledges such as putting more teachers into schools and making primary health care more accessible are fine as far as they go. There is just no explanation as to how this might be achieved.
Bill English began his campaign attack labelling Labour's public utterances a fog of slick generalities. He will try in the next four weeks to convince voters that Labour has an unspoken agenda which is anti-business (permitting general strikes), financially cavalier (higher inflation) and socially destructive (liberalised marijuana law). None of which is implausible, but his problem will be in persuading the electorate that this conservative Government, which has pottered about on the foundations, really has a sinister plan.
The two parties will battle most fiercely not on policies but on voting strategies to keep the Greens from achieving undue influence. Mr English is frustrated at the talk of National supporters giving Labour their party votes to provide the overall majority that would exclude the Greens. He says he doesn't believe it, but dedicated a prominent segment of his launch to trying to undermine it and turn the party votes back to National.
With the two leaders now setting out their putative programmes, the oft-repeated claim that from Opposition National has failed to provide alternatives in critical policies does not stand scrutiny. There are fundamental differences over lower income and corporate tax, the treaty, defence, superannuation and education. In the case of the last two the differences are a concern in themselves, evidence of a failure of politicians to find consensus on two of the most critical and expensive social policies. In these sectors, continuing policy flip-flops will damage the nation.
This election campaign lacks the usual prospect of a clash of the Titans because of the large lead Labour has over National in all major opinion polls. Mr English will do the electorate a service, however, if he forces Labour's construction crew to unfold the working drawings for its house plan. That way voters will have a clearer idea of whether it can be built faster and whether they want to buy it.
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<i>Editorial:</i> Let's see dream house plan
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