KEY POINTS:
The election of John Key as National's next leader at Monday's caucus meeting should be a formality. He is not only the best choice, but the party's only option. Any calls for Bill English to resume the leadership ignore the disastrous election showing on his watch. Mr English is no John Howard, and National must surely build on the work of Don Brash, not return to the dire circumstances that prompted his rapid elevation.
As a politician, Mr Key is not the finished article. Like Dr Brash, he would be leading a political party after only a short apprenticeship. But, as the likes of David Lange have proved, that is not necessarily a fatal limitation. Mr Key's four years in Parliament have confirmed the promise inherent in his successful investment banking career and revealed that whatever the riches accrued from that profession he retains a strong streak of pragmatism. That, allied to his enthusiasm, will be vital to settle the party and repair the rifts that developed during Dr Brash's tenure.
If he is handed the top job, it will be important for Mr Key to be his own man. Dr Brash's inexperience prompted him to seek advice from many quarters. The result was chaotic. Mr Key will have to surround himself with a strong staff and plough a resolute path. It will be to his immediate advantage that, by dint of personality, he is not so prone to goofiness or gaffes. Tellingly, he was astute enough, upon entering politics, not to hide the trappings of his success but to paint these in terms of hard work and a relatively humble Christchurch upbringing.
The Herald-DigiPoll survey published this week, which showed Mr Key breathing down Dr Brash's neck as preferred National leader, suggested he was beginning to achieve a sound public profile. But more work needs to be done there. Mr Key's persona could be seen as somewhat cold. He will have to leaven this because the Labour Party will be intent on highlighting any weakness and tying it to his wealth.
In Mr Key's favour, he would assume the leadership at an opportune time. The tide is flowing with National. The latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows Dr Brash has bequeathed his likely successor a seven-point lead over Labour. This points to a public perhaps soured by a long-running Government and certainly dissatisfied with a string of unseemly episodes. It also confirms Dr Brash's success in recreating a distinctive party. Mr Key should learn, quickly, from Dr Brash's mistakes. And his job would be to build on this with a ladle of greater polish and political convention.
