KEY POINTS:
Flights in and out of Bangkok have resumed, promising an end to the chaos that stranded 350,000 foreigners at the city's airports and prompted a leaden-footed New Zealand rescue exercise. It would be naive, however, to assume Thailand's troubles are over. The Constitutional Court ruling that dissolved the ruling party after finding it guilty of electoral fraud and banned the Prime Minister from politics for five years has merely delivered a lull in hostilities. Thailand remains deeply divided. Worse still, deadlock seems inevitable as long as the ironically named People's Alliance for Democracy, the orchestrator of the airport sieges, continues to demand that most parliamentarians are appointed according to profession and social group, rather than elected by universal suffrage.
In essence, Thailand is experiencing a severe case of democratic growing pains. The origin of this lies in Thaksin Shinawatra's election as Prime Minister seven years ago. Traditionally, Thailand's peasant majority had voted for the rural allies of the urban privileged. But Thaksin, a populist, won their overwhelming support by pledging the likes of cheap loans and improved healthcare. Never before had that been part of the Thai political landscape.
The middle classes and urban elite recognised a threat and organised a series of street protests that led in September 2006 to a military coup.
The Army allowed a return to democracy last year, only for the People's Power Party, a proxy for Thaksin's disbanded party, to win a majority of seats and form a coalition Government. Subsequently, two Prime Ministers, Samak Sundaravej and now Somchai Wongsawat, Thaksin's brother-in-law, have been forced from office by court rulings. However, the ruling coalition is still intact, and next week is expected to switch to a new "shell" party and form a Government that remains dominated by pro-Thaksin politicians.
This will further infuriate the People's Alliance for Democracy. Almost certainly, there will be more street protests aimed at inciting another military takeover, or judicial intervention that leads to the suspension of the constitution and appointment of an interim Administration, mainly of judges. The judiciary has proved itself no friend of the rural poor. Samak Sundaravej's term as Prime Minister was ended by the Constitutional Court for the less-than-heinous offence of continuing to host a TV cooking show. It also remains to be seen whether corruption charges against Thaksin, which caused him to flee the country, were trumped up.
The urban elite's ultimate aim, however, is to force the abandonment of the one-person, one-vote system. It claims Thailand's rural majority is too poorly educated and too susceptible to vote-buying to responsibly choose its representatives. The rich and privileged should do this for them. Never mind that even if some buying of votes has occurred, the landslide majorities for pro-Thaksin politicians speak volumes of the peasants' preference.
Traditionally, politics in Thailand have been about compromise. Extremities have been avoided, partly thanks to the influence of a much-revered monarch. This, and a "Land of Smiles" image that has enticed millions of tourists every year, has allowed the Thai economy to flourish. But the scenes at Suvarnabhumi and Don Muang airports present a very different and very disturbing picture.
This is a society divided, in which an elite group is fighting a rearguard action against democracy. Every door it tries to shut and every one of its increasingly outlandish stunts heightens the threat of total paralysis. While Thailand suffers, the protesters continue to proclaim the failings of Thaksin and his political heirs. That, however, is not the issue. Democracy is.
