KEY POINTS:
All sorts of odd reasons are being suggested to explain Fiji's decision to expel New Zealand High Commissioner Michael Green. Even rugby has been dragged into the equation - the self-appointed Prime Minister, Commodore Frank Bainimarama, is said to have felt slighted by the seating arrangements at the match in Suva between Fiji and the Junior All Blacks. More plausibly, the expulsion is the culmination of the military-led regime's distaste for New Zealand's trenchant criticism of developments in Fiji.
Provoking a diplomatic crisis is obviously a complete over-reaction. But perhaps it is not too difficult to discern why New Zealand has been singled out. Its criticism of the Bainimarama regime has been vigorous, vocal and largely unremitting. Before and after last December's coup, Prime Minister Helen Clark urged senior Fijian military officers to remain loyal to their oath of allegiance to the constitution.
In an appeal that amounted to a call to mutiny, she said they should tell Commodore Bainimarama, "you're not running this show any more".
It proved a vain hope. The military has remained solidly behind its commander. New Zealand appeals for passive resistance from the community proved equally futile. The Fijian people, by and large, greeted the coup, the fourth since 1987, with a resigned shrug.
Subsequently, Fiji has several times accused New Zealand of interfering in its domestic affairs. The high commissioners of New Zealand and Australia have also been accused of not accurately reporting the situation in Fiji to their governments.
In January, Commodore Bainimarama talked of New Zealand's "intimidating and bullying" tactics. Three months later, Fiji's Land Force Commander, Colonel Pita Driti, warned that the New Zealand and Australian high commissions could be closed because of criticism of Fijian troops serving in United Nations peacekeeping missions.
Now there are vague allegations that Mr Green was involved in a pre-coup plot against Fiji. This is likely to be a gross misreading of meetings with opponents of Commodore Bainimarama. Nor can a malign interpretation be placed on discussions the High Commissioner may have held this year with members of the ousted democratically-elected Government. Deposed Prime Minister Laisenia Qarase says he has heard of such talks.
If such is the case, it would be simply the grist of diplomacy in a foreign country. Diplomats maintain communication with varied opinions and all parties to keep up to date with what is happening. They also express their Government's views, in this case that Fiji's interim Government is unconstitutional and illegal. None of this should have been enough to prompt Mr Green's expulsion. Unsurprisingly, however, it all combined to put the High Commissioner well offside with the regime. Personal animosity between him and the coup leader, allied to Commodore Bainimarama's naivety, may have completed a combustible mixture.
The unsophisticated nature of the Fijian regime was evidenced not only by Mr Green's expulsion, but by the attempt to use him as a bargaining chip to extract travel ban concessions for the coup leaders and their associates.
New Zealand's response was predictable and swift, as will be the imposition of further penalties, which are likely to damage Fiji's tourism industry, in particular. New Zealand must also redouble its efforts to secure an accelerated return to constitutional government.
On reflection, it might also be not so puzzled by the expulsion of its High Commissioner.
