KEY POINTS:
Once again New Zealand, which prides itself on knowing the Pacific better than any other developed nation, has been surprised by an upheaval, this time in Tonga. Nobody could have predicted precisely when events would take the ugly turn they did last Thursday, when rioting left buildings burned and eight people dead, but there was always a risk that the well-documented political tensions in the kingdom would boil over after the death of King Tupou IV last month.
His unpopular successor has been quick to blame the trouble on a "criminal element", and the rioters have been disowned by agitators for democracy, but it can hardly be coincidence that a drunken mob should have gone on such a rampage immediately the Parliament had risen without voting on proposals to make a majority of its seats directly elected.
The mob's targets included innocent Chinese establishments as well as property owned by the King and the Prime Minister. When political authority breaks down, the resulting lawlessness does not confine its targets to symbols of the state. Tonga's day of destruction may not have been a popular uprising but it was a warning that must be heeded.
The new King's statement in response to the rioting does not encourage confidence. "Every measure of the law will be followed to track down and prosecute the perpetrators and those who incited this mindless criminal destruction," declared King George Tupou V. He added that his Government would provide leadership and initiatives to overcome the damage caused to the economy and to minimise the impact on the people.
The scale of the disturbance suggests it is beyond the capacity of Tonga's police and prisons to carry out the King's promise, and he might have been wiser to adopt a more conciliatory tone.
In rushing to assist the restoration of law and order on the island, New Zealand must ensure it does not allow Tonga's elite to imagine their authority can be maintained with external support. The democratic movement's leader, 'Akilisi Pohiva, is right to greet the New Zealand police and soldiers as evidence of Tonga's government failure.
Martial law prevented further trouble over the weekend, but checkpoints and curfews should not be enforced for too long. Tonga's rulers have to face the discontent demonstrated last week, and the sooner they face it the better for Tonga.
There have been hopeful signs. Amid the violence, Mr Pohiva reminded the people the Government had agreed to elections in 2008 at which a majority of seats would be filled by popular vote. But if that was more than a calming announcement, it is strange the King did not mention the concession the next day.
In fact, the Cabinet's decision to put 21 of the 30 seats to a popular vote had been made before the riot, during the 10 days protesters had been camping on a reserve and doing no more than throwing clods to press their case on the Parliament. It remains to be seen whether the Cabinet will hold to the concession now.
The value of a monarchy is its ability to distance itself from power when the nation requires it. Tonga now needs a king who can stand apart from the elite that is accustomed to governing in his name, and give the people confidence their voices will be heard. There has been no sign so far that King George is capable of any such gesture. Unless he quickly acquires a popular touch he and his kingdom could be soon consigned to history.
New Zealand must take care to ensure the law it has brought to the country over the weekend does not give the old order a false sense of security.
