Editorial: Bush's Iraq strategy floundering

According to The Bushes: Portrait of a Dynasty, a new book by Peter and Rochelle Schweizer, President George W. Bush's father expressed anguish over the United States invasion of Iraq. Was there an exit strategy, the former President and architect of the 1991 Gulf War wanted to know. There was not. American thinking did not extend beyond a post-September 11 demonstration of muscle. Now the consequences of this appalling lapse are clear - Iraq is spiralling out of control, dragging down President Bush's re-election prospects with it.

The White House still has no cogent strategy. The official line, enunciated by spokesman Scott McClellan, is that "our resolve is firm, and we will prevail". American casualties, however, are mounting at roughly the same rate as Iraqi fury. The American forces, now widely loathed as occupiers, are confronting the stirrings of a nightmare scenario - a two-front insurrection involving Sunni Muslim militants in Fallujah and other cities west of Baghdad, and Shiite militia fighters in the south.

That scenario has been heightened by recent American blunders. First, American forces risked antagonising large sections of the majority Shiite population by escalating the confrontation with radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. The resulting anger forced Iraq's top Shiite cleric, Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, to join the condemnation of the American tactics against insurgency. Worst of all, perhaps, the US invited pan-Muslim outrage when attack helicopters bombed a mosque in Fallujah. Whether or not insurgents were hiding there, this attack on a holy place was bound to be perceived as an assault on Islam.

Clearly, American plans for a transitional Iraq government to take power by June 30 are now in tatters. The Shiites, who were brutally repressed by Saddam Hussein and initially welcomed the Americans, already felt they had been denied the dominant role that their numbers demanded. In the wake of the attack on al-Sadr's militia, thousands are now actively rebellious. Only now, it seems, is Iraq's complex and volatile ethnic and religious mix beginning to dawn on the White House.

Unfortunately for President Bush, his floundering is increasingly obvious to Americans. Opinion polls suggest that more people now disapprove of the handling of the Iraq situation than approve, and that the disapproval rate is increasing rapidly. Pertinently, one opinion poll found that only 32 per cent thought the President had a clear plan.

As American casualties mount, the patience of the people is wearing thin. President Bush's chances of re-election in November hinge on an end to the insurgency, a successful handover of sovereignty, and the withdrawal of the vast majority of American troops. Yet his strategy suggests only heightened resistance, increased opposition to US power transfer plans, and the dispatch of more troops to bolster an overstretched Army. Only a drastic switch of policy will alter that picture and produce a viable solution.

That change should have been made a year ago after the capture of Baghdad. It involves the US handing control of Iraq to the United Nations, and United Nations troops replacing American forces. As Iraq descends into violence, it is imperative that the international community takes charge immediately. The more the situation deteriorates, the more reluctant many countries will be to contribute. Perhaps, however, the plight of Iraq will encourage Muslim countries to make a major, and beneficial, contribution to a UN peacemaking force.

This represents the best chance of a de-escalation of hostilities, and the building of a united and democratic Iraq. It also offers President Bush his best chance of re-election. Regrettably, there is no sign that he recognises this.

Herald Feature: Iraq