<i>Editorial: </i>Afghan conflict is far from over yet

14 Nov, 2001 05:58 AM4 mins to read

So headlong was the Taleban retreat from northern Afghanistan that it is tempting to assume that the war will soon be over. Equally, it might well be assumed that Osama bin Laden's al Qaeda terrorist network will soon be destroyed. But such thinking is fanciful. The Taleban, although thoroughly demoralised, have not suffered crushing defeat on the battlefield. They will continue to wage war in some shape or form from their southern heartland.

Furthermore, the capture of Kabul by Northern Alliance forces conceivably creates more problems than it solves. Indeed, cobbling together a new government acceptable to all of Afghanistan's ethnic groups may now be a considerable and unwelcome distraction from the war on terrorism.

Military success in Afghanistan has clearly careered far ahead of political considerations. As recently as the weekend, President George W. Bush requested the Northern Alliance not to enter Kabul. He was ignored. The American preference was for the Afghan capital to be an open city, pending the formation of a government embracing all Afghan ethnic factions. What the United States had not counted upon was the crumbling of Taleban resistance in the face of relentless aerial bombardment. That, not any military expertise by the rag-tag Northern Alliance army, caused the overstretched Taleban forces to disintegrate.

So severe is the demoralisation that the Taleban rout has already extended to their ethnic Pashtun homeland with the capture of Jalalabad. The Taleban leadership is imploring its retreating troops to stop running around "like slaughtered chickens". Transforming those troops into the fighting cocks of old may not occur soon enough to allow an effective defence of Kandahar, the Taleban's spiritual capital. But they will surely regroup as guerilla fighters in the mountainous south, employing the tactics which humbled the Soviet Army. In such warfare the ceding of territory is a secondary consideration.

The Taleban will reckon that it can bide its time until any new government in Kabul self-destructs. Their accession to power five years ago was, in many ways, a product of the mass killings of the 1990s that followed the end of the Soviet Union's 10-year involvement. Even the Taleban's harsh creed was welcomed for its accent on law and order.

Muslim fundamentalists will be handed fresh ammunition if the Northern Alliance again lives up to its bloody reputation. The attacks of September 11 were designed to extract a massive American response that, in killing a multitude of innocent Muslims, would foment revolutionary discontent throughout the Arab world. The US has so far managed, tenuously, to keep its reaction within the bounds of moderation.

That could be undone, however, if an effective multi-ethnic government cannot be formed and Afghanistan descends into brutal tribal infighting. The United Nations has an important role to play, both as the orchestrator of a viable government and the supplier of a multinational security force.

The Northern Alliance's rapid advance has, in all probability, astounded American strategists. US policy, never noted for its clarity, must now be rethought. A lengthy guerrilla war looms, and the apprehension of bin Laden may be little closer.

Significantly, however, some key figures in the Bush Administration are now demonstrating a greater understanding of the realities of the war on terrorism. Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, for example, has acknowledged that neither the quick Northern Alliance advance nor the capture or death of bin Laden will end the war. "The war is not about one man or one terrorist network or even one country," he said.

Even more encouragingly, Colin Powell, the astute Secretary of State, has linked the war to socio-economic factors. He told the UN Security Council of the need to deny terrorists succour through increased support for democracy, poverty alleviation, economic reform and health and education programmes. Mr Powell might also have added the need to settle disputes in the Middle East which provide powder for Muslim extremists, most notably that between Israel and the Palestinians.

His views indicate a level of insight that, it is to be hoped, will come to be shared by most in the Bush Administration. If applied to the parlous situation in Afghanistan, they offer the best chance of effective and responsible government - and the best chance of consigning the Taleban to the dustbin of history.

As of now, however, the challenge confronting the US has taken on a dangerous new complexion. The conflict is far from over.

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