Dialogue: Trial by media stern test for democracy

GUY-WILSON ROBERTS* says impeachment proceedings against the President of the Philippines add to Asia-Pacific's uncertain outlook.

The President of the Philippines, Joseph Estrada, has returned to his former calling as a movie actor by starring in a new drama that local television has billed as the trial of the century.

But this is no fictitious television show; rather, it is a pivotal event for the Philippines in its transition from despotic authoritarianism to resilient democracy. The spectacle of a televised courtroom battle aside, the outcome of the trial will be definitive domestically and internationally.

The United States provided the model for the Philippines' Senate to impeach the President.

But the charges against Estrada - known as Erap to locals - are much more serious and even more salacious than those faced by Bill Clinton.

Congressional prosecutors have charged Estrada with bribery, corruption, betrayal of public trust and violation of the constitution. If found guilty by the Senate, he will be removed from office after only two years of his six-year term.

The key allegation is that Estrada has pocketed at least $US12 million ($27.1 million) in kickbacks, financing his own extravagant lifestyle and those of his several mistresses.

To be removed from office, 15 of the 22 sitting senators, two-thirds of the Senate, must vote for impeachment. The 24-member Senate has two vacant seats, so the prosecutors suggest that 16 votes for impeachment are required just to be sure.

At least 11 senators favour impeachment, so five Erap supporters must be swayed. As one local commentator noted, "anything goes in Philippine politics."

It is not clear if these senators will switch, as they have profited politically from supporting the President. But with the trial live on television, on two channels, it is truly a trial by media. At the end of each day's proceedings, viewers are invited to phone in their opinions and pass judgment on the strength of evidence.



With the undecided senators carefully watching public opinion for clues on how to vote, people power may be a decisive factor.

Public demonstrations have been held for and against impeachment. The Catholic Church is a significant force against the President.

Regional observers have suggested that Estrada, the champion of the poor, is the target of the Philippine elite.

The situation on the ground is more complicated, with Estrada's support coming mostly from political factions that have benefited individually from his presidency.

Opponents of the President have suggested that a mob for supporting him can be rented for about 50 pesos (about $2) a head. Supporters argue that key business families are behind the impeachment campaign.

For the Philippines, the impeachment process demonstrates that it can deal with executive transgressions through a constitutional process that will not undermine the development of its democracy. The Army has been quick to quell fears of a military coup to put the vice-president in power. It is concerned with law and order, suggesting that it has a policy of maximum tolerance for protests and civil action.

Supporters and opponents of the President are likely to take to the streets no matter what the outcome. The threshold for civil unrest may be quite low because many distrust the impeachment process. The state of the economy may also be a factor, particularly if the currency drops after an acquittal.

In the case of violent civil unrest, the Army would be forced to act, with uncertain outcomes and undoubtedly a setback for democracy in the Philippines.

For a president of the Philippines there is much unfinished business. While the economy survived the Asian economic crisis, the nation of 76 million has pressing issues of economic growth and wealth distribution.

Estrada has been busy engaging with Muslim rebels in the south. But a recent military campaign, while successful in the short term, may have pushed an enduring negotiated solution further from reach.

Recent evidence has put the prosecution on the back foot but the trial is still scheduled to run into the middle of this month. What the outcome will mean for democracy in the Philippines is less certain.

With continuing concerns in the region over the future of Indonesia, the Philippines might be a model of democracy and stable constitutional processes.

It is a country of some importance in the Asia-Pacific region, of middle size but democratic and progressive in terms of its approach to regionalism.

Yet the resilience of its constitution is far from certain and, in a region of some political instability, a source of concern for countries such as New Zealand.

The festive season is in full swing in Manila.

While the trial of the century provides compelling viewing, most locals are concerned with the implications that political machinations will have for the economy and their personal financial situations.

For the Philippines, and the region, this impeachment trial is of much greater importance than the US one that inspired it.

* Dr Guy Wilson-Roberts is the deputy director of Victoria University's centre for strategic studies.