Dialogue: Qatar trade conference a game of high stakes

New Zealand has much to gain at the World Trade Organisation meeting in Qatar. STEPHEN JACOBI* charts the progress and the divisions.

The Lonely Planet Guide describes the city of Doha in the Gulf state of Qatar as not exactly one of the world's major tourist destinations.

Set on the edge of the desert, in the politically charged Middle East, Doha seems an unlikely place for a major international gathering that will have a major impact on New Zealand's economic future.

Yet it is to Doha that the 144 members of the World Trade Organisation, including China and Taiwan, have come, together with a host of observer delegations and non-governmental organisations. Not present this time round are the protesters, anarchists and wreckers who trashed Seattle, the host of the last WTO meeting held two years ago.

The last meeting is remembered not only for the battle of Seattle but for the failure of the world trade community to agree on what in WTO-speak is called a new round of trade negotiations. The agenda is pretty much the same in Doha. The battle this time is strictly a contest of words as trade ministers grapple with a nine-page, 45-paragraph document which sets out a work programme for the WTO over the next two years.

This work programme amounts to a comprehensive negotiation of a wide range of trade issues. Some of these are largely uncontroversial and are all but agreed. These include reducing tariffs and non-tariff barriers for manufactured products and expanding market access for services exports.

These and the further opening of world agricultural markets are of key interest to New Zealand exporters.

The WTO operates strictly by consensus; each member has an equal voice and nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

At the mid-point in the five-day meeting, members are still divided. Some in the developing world are opposed to a new round; others are in favour but disagree on the way the different elements should be included.

There are several potential deal-breakers. These include eliminating export subsidies for agriculture (the really big gain for New Zealand); intellectual property rights and access to medicines; environmental issues; investment and competition policy; anti-dumping and subsidy rules; and issues left over from the last round which developing countries say have not been implemented properly.

The stakes are high. The WTO Director-General, Mike Moore, says the meeting is about the further liberalisation of trade, the creation of more jobs, the strengthening of the multilateral system and the extension of the full benefits of that system to countries now marginalised by poverty.

Conversely, a repeat of the failure of Seattle would be a blow for world economic growth at a time of looming recession. The needs of both developing and developed countries would, again in Mr Moore's words, continue to be frustrated, injustices frozen and great needs sidelined.

The WTO would continue to administer and adjudicate the trade rules that have been negotiated but it would over time become increasingly irrelevant as countries looked to other avenues for trade liberalisation, which could discriminate against other trading partners.

For some in Doha this would be no bad thing. A parallel conference of non-governmental organisations is the focus for criticism of the WTO. There's nothing wrong with this; in fact, a greater presence by non-governmental organisations would have been useful as further proof that the WTO is not a closed shop.

Trade unions and environmental groups are active.

Mr Moore and Ministers of Trade, including Jim Sutton, have been down to the non-governmental organisations conference to participate in the sessions. It is hardly tenable to claim, as some of these same organisations did in protest at the opening ceremony, that the non-governmental organisation voice is not being heard.

The WTO is not the problem but part of the solution in the struggle to create jobs, eliminate poverty and promote sustainable development.

In contrast, the business voice is strangely silent in the non-governmental organisation forum. That is disappointing.

More encouraging is the growing awareness that business and pro-WTO non-governmental organisations need to do more to articulate the benefits of trade liberalisation.

In New Zealand, the Trade Liberalisation Network has been established to build greater public support and understanding. Similar organisations are being formed in other countries and came together in Doha to share information and discuss strategies.

These contacts will bear fruit in the months ahead as business organisations, which are more united in their fundamental beliefs than the opposing groups, take a leaf from their book in networking and public advocacy.

New Zealand, too, has come to Doha. The delegation, led by Mr Sutton, includes MPs, trade negotiators, officials and sectoral advisers from labour, farming, environment and business.

The delegation is working well as a team, coping with the strict security around the conference venue and with initial transport and logistical problems.

The element of risk is not far away. A shooting incident at a US air base near Doha on the day of the delegation's arrival did not help, but was found to be unconnected with the WTO. As the conference proceeds, calm prevails under the watchful and friendly eye of the Qatari hosts, even with the heat and the price of beer ($20 a can).

It may not be known until the last few hours of the conference whether the business will be done and the new round launched.

New Zealand has much to gain and to lose. New Zealanders may not have thought much about Doha before. It is probably worth a thought or two now.

* Stephen Jacobi is the executive director of the Trade Liberalisation Network.