Dialogue: NZ should be content with Japanese election result

By STEPHEN LEVINE

Japan's voters have delivered a mixed verdict on the country's coalition Government. The Liberal Democratic Party, Japan's largest, had a majority in the previous Parliament; now it has only 233 of 480 seats.

The three coalition parties together won 271 seats, a comfortable majority yet far short of the 335 (of 500 seats) they used to hold.

The re-election of Japan's right-of-centre Government gives New Zealand policy-makers continued stability in an important part of the Asia-Pacific region. But the failure of the coalition to achieve a clear mandate from the electorate is also a positive result, not only for New Zealand but also for the future of Japan.

The election was called by the Prime Minister, Yoshiro Mori, but it was his conduct since taking office which became the main issue of the 12-day campaign. Mori became Prime Minister on April 5, three days after his predecessor, Keizo Obuchi, fell into a coma after suffering a stroke. Mr Obuchi died six weeks later.

Mr Mori's arrival in office was not greeted with any conspicuous jubilation. His Government was given only a 34 per cent approval rating at the outset and by election day this had plummeted. Two days before the ballot, a poll had the cabinet's approval rating down to an astonishing 12.5 per cent.

Mr Mori has had a difficult time from the beginning. He was chosen to succeed Mr Obuchi in disputed, even suspicious, circumstances at a meeting he attended with four other leaders of the Liberal Democrats. Only one of them was a member of the cabinet.

Having taken office, Mr Mori had only to abide by the ancient prescription laid down for doctors: first, do no harm. All that was required of him was a modicum of dignity and reticence, virtues highly prized in Japan and appropriate to the circumstances.

It is difficult to feel much sympathy for Mr Mori. No one forced him to speak carelessly, leading Japanese listeners to believe that he was calling for a return to a prewar Japan focused on the Emperor. It was his idea, alone, presumably, to describe the country as a land of gods, a divine nation centring on the Emperor, and to use concepts and language long consigned to the history books.

Although the Japanese have many polite forms of apology that are used in daily discourse, Mr Mori managed to express his regrets for "misunderstandings" without retracting anything he said. The calling of the election, months earlier than required, was an attempt by an embattled Government to secure some kind of mandate for itself.

It came after the Government defeated an Opposition motion of censure over Mr Mori's remarks and right before a vote of no-confidence was to have been taken.

Japan has many problems, but this election was not fought on issues or policy differences. The main theme for the Opposition was the Prime Minister's unfitness for office. In a way it was a very American election. As with President Clinton, the issue was character. Did the Prime Minister display good judgment? Was he committed to the democratic values enshrined in the Japanese constitution?

In the end, the Government was saved by the electoral system. Japan, like New Zealand, changed its voting system in 1996. This election, too, was only the second to be held under the new system. As in New Zealand, voters have two ballots - one for a constituency candidate, the other for a political party. There is, however, a crucial difference between the two systems: in Japan, the proportional representation only applies to the 180 party-list seats.

Thus the Liberal Democrats were able to hold on to power, despite strong public and media reaction against Mr Mori's remarks, because they won 177 of the 300 electorates. This was first-past-the-post politics as we used to know it: the Liberal Democrats won 41 per cent of the electorate candidate votes but captured 59 per cent of the electorate seats.

As for the party-list vote - which receives much less attention in Japan - the Liberal Democrats won only 28 per cent, a mere 3 per cent more than the opposition Democratic Party.

Under New Zealand's MMP rules, the three parties making up Japan's coalition Government would have had only about 41 per cent of the seats and there could well have been a historic move to a New Zealand-style centre-left lineup.

Ironically, Mr Mori's wish for a new mandate was nearly achieved in exactly the way he had suggested. On being advised there were many undecided voters, the Prime Minister said he hoped that they would "remain uninterested" and "sleep" on election day. Turnout, although up from 1996, was only 62.5 per cent, partly attributable to the rainy weather - perhaps a gift to the Prime Minister from the country's grateful gods.

* Stephen Levine is associate professor of political science at Victoria University.