Dialogue: End of the golden weather for medals?

By WILL LOW*

New Zealand loves its Olympians. Consider the voting for New Zealand sporting champion of the century from the choice of 10 decade finalists. Half the candidates were Olympians, and the ultimate winner was Peter Snell, double Olympic gold medallist at the 1964 Tokyo Games.

The Olympics, along with sports more generally, have played a key part in New Zealand myth-making and national identity.

Television New Zealand's series on the Olympics, Dreams of Gold, concluded with the statement that New Zealand has won more medals a head of population than any other country. This demonstrates our ability to punch above our weight and foot it with the best in the world.

Not knowing how this figure was arrived at, I suspect it is all part of the ongoing myth-making. Finland, Sweden, Denmark and Norway must all rate highly in terms of medals a head, even without counting their Winter Olympic successes.

Perhaps it is a ploy to raise the viewing audience from today. Certainly the presence of the Games in the Southern Hemisphere will be kind to viewers, even those with video-recorders.

The Australians are definitely hoping for the usual surge of medals enjoyed by the host nation, as it did in the 1956 Melbourne Games. But will proximity to home mean we will see more Golden Kiwis adding to our 54 Olympic medals?

If history is anything to go by, we might expect to hear God Defend New Zealand anything up to a dozen times in Sydney. But the sports in which Kiwis will excel are not always those most closely associated with the Olympics.

No doubt central to Kiwi Olympic myth-making is the golden era of New Zealand middle-distance running, from Halberg, to Snell, Davies, Dixon, Quax and Walker. However, don't expect more than one, or at most two, surprise medallists to add to the previous 14 winners of traditional track and field events.

Surprise winners are also a key part of the Kiwi Olympic myth - athletes who won against all odds. Consider three examples.

Danyon Loader alone won half of New Zealand's total of six medals in the pool and is the country's only gold medal swimmer. Rifle-shooter Ian Ballinger won bronze at the Mexico Olympics in 1968. Finally, the 1976 men's hockey team beat the Australians in 1976 at Montreal. This year's surprise winners might come in hockey again, but this time the women, and cycling.

For our best medal hopes, look to a mix of old yachting, rowing and equestrianism - and new softball and triathlon - Olympic sports. Prospects in the old sports reflect a history of success in them while we boast world champions in the new.

Based on these prospects, consider the Sports Foundation's stated policy on these pages to pick winners. Sure enough rowing, yachting and equestrian each received over half a million dollars, which should be repaid in medals. Cycling and hockey were also in this financial league but probably have only outside chances of medals.

Meanwhile, though softball received over a quarter of a million dollars, triathlon got only $86,000. All of athletics, the glamour events of the Games, got only $299,000.

So far so good: the policy may pay off. But where does it leave New Zealand at future Olympics? I suspect that picking winners will result in an escalation of sports spending to maintain success. With an eye to Athens in 2004 and beyond, the Government has already pledged $16 million for three regional high-performance sports centres.

The sports in which New Zealand has excelled and is likely to continue to excel are not the technical sports (run, jump and throw) but the technological sports. Rowing, cycling (including triathlon), yachting and equestrianism require sophisticated and expensive equipment. Indeed, one of the reasons New Zealand is likely to maintain its success is that these minority sports are out of reach of athletes from Africa, Asia and South America.

Success in any sport in the modern global environment will never be cheap. To be the best requires at the very least regular competition against the best, and that means travel or living abroad. But picking winners leaves even less chance that the outsiders will spring medal surprises.

One relatively cheap strategy to more Olympic gold might be to lobby for rugby (men's and women's) to be accepted as an Olympic sport. But don't bet on the outcome, even if this long-shot strategy worked.

* Will Low teaches public policy and is researching sports policy in New Zealand.

Herald Online Olympic News