Campaign day 26: Down to a phone call (or two)

By JOHN ARMSTRONG political editor

Late tomorrow evening Helen Clark will pick up the phone and ring Jeanette Fitzsimons.

Labour and the Greens will be in a position to talk turkey.

Today's Herald-DigiPoll survey has Labour's vote slipping below 39 per cent. But the flirtation with minor parties will cool when voters are confronted with the reality of the ballot paper.

Expect to see a last-minute firming in Labour's vote.

The party will get about 42 to 44 per cent, securing about 53 seats in the new Parliament.

Not enough for the absolute majority Helen Clark long cherished, however.

Jim Anderton will be back, of course. He may bring another MP with him. Which will leave the Prime Minister relying on the Greens, GM moratorium or no GM moratorium.

They should win eight to nine seats, enough for Helen Clark to be able to tell the Governor-General she has the confidence of a majority 61 MPs in the 120-seat Parliament.

The other option is to bring on board Peter Dunne's United Future, perhaps in a coalition arrangement.

However, Mr Dunne will get a maximum of five seats, not enough to give the Prime Minister a majority.

So Helen Clark may as well go straight to the Greens. Which is why she has had nice things to say about Jeanette Fitzsimons' party over the last couple of days.

However, Helen Clark may well call Mr Dunne for the sake of diplomacy, just in case she needs the Greens AND him after all.

Mr Dunne will be deemed a "winner", but he will probably remain in Opposition.

Likewise NZ First, which should easily double its representation to 10 MPs, and Act, which will come back with at least seven MPs after also running a highly effective campaign.

Unlike National. Its campaign horribilis ends with the party bottoming on a new low of 21 per cent in last night's television polls.

A complacent victim of tactical voting, it will be lucky to return 30 MPs.

That's nine fewer than it has now. Those should not be the only heads to roll.

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