Campaign day 23: Minor parties savour their moment in the limelight

By JOHN ARMSTRONG

Goodbye Labour Government; hello National-Act-New Zealand First-United Future coalition?

Tot up the numbers in yesterday's Herald-DigiPoll survey and such a Grand Coalition of the Right technically becomes a possibility, albeit one remote in the extreme.

What is not in doubt is that few opinion polls have shaken up an election campaign in quite the fashion this one has.

Gobsmacked party strategists almost fell out of their beds as their clock radios chimed the news that Peter Dunne's United Future had soared six-fold from 1.1 per cent to 6.6 per cent, thrusting him from parliamentary pawn to potential powerbroker.

This was supposed to be the week Labour and National would deal to the minor parties.

Now those parties are running amok like mice in the pantry.

In Labour's favour, the poll suggests Helen Clark and Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition could govern with the backing of United Future - without needing either the difficult Greens or troublesome NZ First.

But that requires all United Future's newfound support to translate into actual votes - and that seems unlikely.

Underlying the poll is a marked shift from the centre-left to the centre-right, with Labour slipping and the Greens dropping back to pre-campaign levels.

That could result in Helen Clark and Mr Anderton needing two of the following - the Greens, NZ First or Mr Dunne's party - to govern. And that's an unhappy mix.

Why is Labour's support declining? One explanation is that National voters who shifted to Labour to shut the Greens out of government have now aligned themselves with Mr Dunne to give Labour a centre-right coalition partner.

Another explanation centres on Labour's strategy of scaring voters and trying to kill off coalition partners on its side of the fence in a bid to win an absolute majority.

The tactics initially worked to Labour's benefit, boosting its support.

But there was always a danger that the vitriol would suggest that the left was divided against itself and that Labour and the Greens could never work together.

Belatedly, Helen Clark seems to be realising the damage done.

Yesterday, she was reverting to positive mode, refusing to make any comment on any other party but her own.

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