Campaign day 18: Eerie silence hangs over election's deciding issue

By VERNON SMALL deputy political editor

They say "it's the economy, stupid" that determines any election.

But it took until yesterday for it to get anywhere near centre stage.

The lack of a serious focus on the economy has been the most extraordinary aspect of the campaign - alongside National's inability to make an impact.

The two are linked.

Low unemployment, high participation rates, a much improved balance of payments deficit, healthy Government surpluses, solid growth and even a spot of house price inflation have all made for a very happy voter.

There are some clouds looming - among them dodgy corporate accounting in the United States and the impact of a higher dollar and lower commodity prices.

But National has failed to prick voters' fears of a downturn ahead.

Feeling relatively content, the public seem to feel free to indulge themselves with a vote on non-hip- pocket issues - GM, crime and immigration in particular - without risking a change of Government.

That has produced a steady rise in the poll ratings of the Greens and New Zealand First, while National has failed to find any traction.

Cullen describes the lack of debate about the economy as "eerie".

But he stirred the pot yesterday by releasing an estimate of the cost of National's promises - more than $2.6 billion by 2005.

That, Cullen told a Business NZ forum, would soak up the cash going into his super fund and still not cover the expense of National's tax cuts.

Predictably, National's David Carter said Cullen was indulging in creative accounting and the promises were affordable.

But the Herald has been seeking detailed costings from National for almost two weeks.

They are promising them next Tuesday - only five days before the election.

That is either cavalier or a reflection of how little they think the public cares.

Before the 1999 election, Labour released a five-year, line-by-line summary of its fiscal projections almost three weeks before polling day.

Cullen may be right when he says National does not need full costing because it is in no danger of governing.

But National has faced no public hue and cry. Perhaps it has accurately read the public mood.

After all, in yesterday's Herald-DigiPoll, twice as many people nominated GM as the top election issue as picked the economy.

Three times as many said crime was the issue.

That may be eroding Labour's lead, but perhaps the election has already been decided - by the economy, stupid.

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