Campaign day 17: Lone man from the wilderness may finally have Dunne it

By JOHN ARMSTRONG political editor

They were cracking open the lemonade at the headquarters of the United Future party yesterday.

Peter Dunne's time may finally have come.

The day after the TVNZ worm turned in the MP's favour - and at last put him on the voting public's radar screen - the latest Herald-DigiPoll survey shows he could play a pivotal role in the formation of the next Labour-led government.

His centrist, part-Christian party is registering only 1 per cent support. But if you add Mr Dunne's Ohariu-Belmont seat to those that Labour and Jim Anderton's Progressive Coalition would win, Helen Clark would control 61 seats in Parliament, giving her a bare majority without having to rely on the troublesome Greens or difficult NZ First.

A three-way coalition between Helen Clark, Mr Anderton and Mr Dunne is within the bounds of possibility.

Minimal movements either way in Labour's support would give Helen Clark enough seats to govern without Mr Dunne or not enough to govern even with him on board.

But the possibility he alone might hold the balance of power was one reason the Prime Minister made a point of agreeing with him on a couple of occasions during Monday night's Holmes debate.

(The other reason is that appearing conciliatory goes down well with viewers.)

The muted wooing noises were reciprocated by Mr Dunne, who made his pitch as a sensible, constructive, moderate, middle-of-the-road coalition partner "which will not throw its toys out of the cot every time it doesn't get its own way". In other words, not like Winston or Jeanette.

It is eight years since Mr Dunne left Labour because he did not get his way on tax policy.

It was an amicable split, undertaken without hysterics.

Apart from a brief stint as a Cabinet minister in 1996 when United propped up Jim Bolger's minority National Government, Mr Dunne has sat in the parliamentary wilderness.

He has largely voted with National, but did back Labour's superannuation fund and paid parental leave.

He has moved to the right since leaving Labour, but Labour has moved to the right in Government.

He says his communication with Helen Clark over the past three years has been "limited". That may be about to change.