Campaign day 16: Even best of enemies ready to climb into bed after election

By VERNON SMALL deputy political editor

Helen attacks Jeanette. Winston attacks Jeanette. Jeanette sort of attacks Winston and Helen. Jim attacks Winston and Jeanette.

If you believed all the election rhetoric, a Government, let alone a coalition, seems to be out of the question after July 27.

But despite what you might have seen on the debate last night, it is time for a reality check, because on current polling some combination of Helen, Jim, Jeanette and Winston - and even Peter Dunne - are somehow going to get into bed together and form a Government.

They might appear to be arch-enemies while seeking your vote, but that will all end roughly a nanosecond after they get it.

Just remember that in politics, unlike life, bedfellows look much more attractive the morning after.

If you are still sceptical, think back to mid-campaign 1996.

As the Worm wriggled across the screen, we were told the Alliance was reluctant to commit to Labour.

Soon after the election it offered a mildly conditional letter of support on confidence and money supply votes.

We were told that NZ First deputy leader Tau Henare would never work with Jim Bolger and thought Jenny Shipley was a social policy pest.

A few months later he was in a Bolger Cabinet. Two years later he quit his party to prop up a Shipley Government, and this year he is standing for National.

We were told in 1996 that Winston Peters and Jim Bolger could never work together.

But the whisky bottle came out and the mathematics were compelling. Together they could toast a majority Government - so they did.

Of course, you can't ignore what is said on the campaign trail but you have to listen with a critical ear.

Helen Clark may boil the Greens, but she has been careful never to rule out a coalition. In fact, her media team are at pains to put the record straight whenever the media infers that.

What she does say is that "the Greens have ruled out a coalition" by their rigid stance on GM. A subtle difference but a significant one.

The truth is that power is a potent aphrodisiac for politicians. The most unlovely fellow-leader on the campaign trail can be a much more alluring prospect when the result of a union is Government.

And when it comes to power, a majority Government is much more tempting than minority rule.

That is why Helen Clark wants to win a majority without needing to rely on the Greens or NZ First.

That is also why a deal that can guarantee confidence and supply is the next best choice.

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