Campaign day 15: Slump leaves Clark unhappy as a dog with two tails

By VERNON SMALL deputy political editor

Slap in the middle of the four-week election campaign it has finally happened.

For the first time, a poll has delivered a result at odds with Helen Clark's fond hope of winning an absolute majority (with a little help from Jim Anderton) from her "two ticks" campaign.

She had wagered that the public would shy away from allowing a small party tail to wag the Government dog.

But last night's One News-Colmar Brunton poll confirmed the recent trend.

Instead of persuading voters to dock the minor party tail, she is now being dogged by two of them - the Greens and New Zealand First.

It seems a mixture of GM corn, faked artworks and Winston Peters' three-fingered assault on crime, the Treaty and immigration have stripped enough support from Labour to throw Clark's first grand plan into serious doubt.

For the moment, she will be relatively relaxed.

Her fall-back position has always been a minority Government which would allow her to operate as she has for the past 2 1/2 years - seeking a majority issue by issue, and playing the Greens and New Zealand First off against each other.

A parliament based on last night's poll would put her in that position again.

But any further erosion of Labour's vote - by three or four percentage points - would set up a more worrying outcome for Clark, one in which only one of the parties - most likely the Greens - had the numbers to give her a majority.

Slice some more support away and it's Nightmare on Molesworth St. She would need NZ First and the Greens to govern.

That would almost certainly be matched by a revival of National's fortunes.

Yet Bill English's lack of momentum has been the most striking feature of the campaign.

For all his focus on Clark's "character" - and having defined the campaign as about leadership she can hardly complain when her integrity is raised - National's poll rating is flat-lining.

Even Act is showing significant gains now, perhaps as National voters despair of a change of Government and opt for a stronger tinge of blue in the Opposition.

Through it all, National is struggling to get a headline.

Bill English yesterday flagged a shift in focus this week towards the Government's failure to solve the teachers' crisis.

For National, strikes in the days before the election are probably more fertile ground than GE.

But English's "solution" - more performance pay and compulsory bulk funding - is not going to get even one tick from PPTA teachers.

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