Campaign Day 13: PM's dream of absolute power turns to chaff

By JOHN ARMSTRONG

The election campaign has more than an element of the bizarre.

National appears extraordinarily relaxed, even though it seems to be sliding to the most humiliating defeat in its 66-year history.

Labour, about to be rewarded with a second term in government, is frustrated and angry. It is even displaying glimpses of paranoia.

The contrasting attitudes indicate that the campaign may be turning.

Labour can sense the glittering prize - absolute power - slipping from its grasp.

To blame are the Greens and the media.

Cabinet ministers are convinced the Greens knew in advance that Nicky Hager was about to throw a stick of dynamite into a placid election campaign.

And some in the Cabinet feel journalists have taken it upon themselves to play the role of Opposition in National's absence.

That paranoia has been fuelled by John Campbell's dubious ambush of Helen Clark on TV3, in which he grilled her about the contaminated corn scare without revealing that the source and detail of his allegations came from Hager's book, published the following day.

Clark, understandably, was furious.

The Prime Minister could hardly be expected to sit back and become an easy target, especially in the middle of an election campaign.

But it was not wise to threaten in retaliation to pull out of the next TV3 leaders' debate, scheduled for two days before the election.



Bill English would have exploited her absence and made claims about her that would have gone unchallenged.

Clark will be there.

The empty threat followed her equally empty threat to sue English and the media after he wallowed in her embarrassment over the police report into the fake art scandal.

By going over the top with the threat of legal action, Clark looked like someone who lashes out at anyone who dares to criticise her.



She would have been better off humouring English and Campbell.

Clark was equally angry with the Greens after Hager's allegation she and other ministers covered up the planting of sweetcorn seed that might have been GM-contaminated.

But unlike the English and Campbell cases, this was not a lapse of judgment.

The incriminating nature of the contaminated corn allegations meant Clark had to hit back hard to jolt voters who might have found Hager's thesis compelling.

There was also a degree of posturing in flaying the Greens.

Two polls this week have lengthened the odds of Labour being able to govern alone.

The temptation is to keep hitting the Greens to drive middle-of-the-road voters back in Labour's direction.

This is risky - attacking Fitzsimons is a bit like criticising Mother Theresa.

Labour's worry is that the corn scare will lead to a drop in its support in the polls over the next week or so.

Any serious dip could persuade voters that Labour has no chance of securing an absolute majority.

That will alter the dynamics of the campaign, enabling National and Act to milk the spectre of post-election instability inherent in a minority-Labour administration trying to govern in unhappy tandem with the Greens or NZ First.

This is why, with two weeks of the campaign to go, English looks so relaxed and Clark somewhat frazzled.

nzherald.co.nz/ge

GE links

GE glossary

Full news coverage:
nzherald.co.nz/election

Election links:
The parties, policies, voting information, and more

Ask a politician:
Send us a question, on any topic, addressed to any party leader. We'll choose the best questions to put to the leaders, and publish the answers in our election coverage.