KEY POINTS:
It is hard to quarrel with a Budget designed to boost household savings, when by one measure households are collectively spending $1.15 for every $1 of income.
By any measure the trend in savings has been going from bad to worse for years, while a debt-fuelled spending boom has been putting upward pressure on inflation, interest rates and the dollar.
The Budget's focus on getting KiwiSaver off to a flying start deals with the immediate problem that personal tax cuts which boosted incomes would be a matter of "now you see it, now you don't" - if as is likely they spooked Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard into raising interest rates.
Dr Cullen has also given the Inland Revenue extra money to enforce a provision already in the tax laws, that people who trade in houses are subject to capital gains tax. The combination of that stick and a bunch of carrots for KiwiSaver should help to address one of the economy's structural problems: the widespread conviction that the best way to accumulate wealth for your old age is not to save money but to borrow money and buy housing with it.
The price of endlessly relying on foreigners' savings to fund the investment the economy needs is that they enjoy the returns on that investment, and demand for New Zealand dollars is kept high.
But he is sorely trying the patience of income-tax payers looking for some relief by way of lower rates or higher thresholds.
The Treasury's forecasts have the economy slowing down again next year, and inflation pressures easing.
If they are right this would remove the excuse for not cutting personal taxes. But the forecasts rest on the assumption that the brakes Dr Bollard has been pumping for three years now are bound to work eventually, all recent evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.
If they are wrong and the economy this time next year is still one with a rampant consumer sector and a struggling export sector, the politics around Dr Cullen's ninth Budget will be really interesting.
His excuse-making powers will be sorely tested.
