KEY POINTS:
There is a famous quote that says that there are "lies, damn lies and statistics". Personally I disagree. Used well, statistics are a vital part of understanding the world we live in. But statistics are also open to abuse and misuse and this can often be dangerous.
Survey results released in Tuesday's Herald declared a reversal of a 30-year decline in smoking rates for New Zealand and that young people are rebelling by smoking more. This appears to be a worrying step backwards for the health of our nation.
The claim, made on the back of a survey published by Massey University, says the number of 15 to 45-year-olds who have smoked at least once in the previous year has leapt from 31.1 per cent in 2003 to 36 per cent in 2006. That means that even if you had just one puff of a cigarette in the last 12 months you count as a smoker. Does this mean that if I went to gym once this year, I'm an athlete?
So, the bad news is that if you took so much as one drag on a cigarette after one too many chardonnays at a party last year, you are now a smoker. But don't despair yet. With statistics there is always the good news.
The headline claims that young people are rebelling by smoking more (well at least one puff a year), but the survey looks at 15 to 45-year-olds.
Does that mean that 45 is the new "young"? Fabulous news, buying a sports car is no longer a mid-life crisis, just youthful exuberance.
Making claims that young people are smoking more, based on the results of the Massey survey, is irresponsible. The conclusions being made from the survey are simply not true.
The New Zealand Census has shown a consistent decline in smoking rates to 21 per cent in 2006 from 23 per cent in 2003. This surveys the entire population and measures daily smoking. To put that into perspective, the Massey study spoke to only 1500 people and asked if they had smoked in the last year.
Action on Smoking and Health New Zealand carries out an annual survey of 30,000 Year 10 students. In 2006, 14.2 per cent of Year 10 teenagers said they were smokers, down from 28.6 per cent in 1999.
The number of youth smokers has more than halved. Teenagers who have never smoked increased from 31.6 per cent in 1999 to 53.8 per cent in 2006.
This means more than half of all Year 10 students have never had even one puff of a cigarette. That was even supported by the Massey survey which showed a decline in the numbers who had ever tried smoking from 59.6 per cent in 2003 to 57.6 per cent in 2006.
According to the most recent New Zealand tobacco use survey; 72 per cent of smokers aged 15 to 19 said they would not smoke if they had their lives over again.
This picture of regret about smoking is far from the alleged youth rebellion.
This is a great success story and among the most impressive achievements in the world when it comes to youth smoking. Young people are rebelling, not against tobacco health alerts, but against tobacco itself. New Zealand is a world leader when it comes to tackling the death and disease caused by smoking.
We were one of the first countries in the world to go smokefree.
We have fantastic support services such as Quitline and Aukati Kai Paipa for smokers who want to stop. We banned tobacco advertising, and picture warnings are about to go on to cigarette packs. Being smokefree is part of the New Zealand identity and people are deservedly proud of this.
We have a wealth of evidence and data that looks specifically at smoking in New Zealand and shows an encouraging picture of support for smokefree legislation, declining youth smoking, and a will for stronger measures to support smokers who want to stop. We should be using this data properly, not using surveys that tell us very little.
The grim picture that we are in the midst of a youth rebellion against smokefree messages is a nonsense.
The claim is even more bizarre when we consider the evidence from the Census and the ASH Year 10 Survey, both of which show marked declines in smoking rates. The commitment to reducing smoking in New Zealand is working.
The decline in smoking rates is slow, and given that it is still killing 4500 people every year, it's clear we still need to do a lot more. ASH has looked at the data, read the evidence and based on this we'll continue to fight the tobacco epidemic with the ultimate goal to rid New Zealand of smoking in the next 10 years.
* Ben Youdan is director of ASH.
