KEY POINTS:
Working-class voters in what Te Atatu MP Chris Carter calls West Auckland's "heartland Outrageous Fortune country" have switched their party votes to National for the first time since 1996.
Te Atatu, the likely new Labour leader Phil Goff's seat of Mt Roskill and possible deputy David Cunliffe's seat of New Lynn all gave National more party votes than Labour on Saturday, even though the three Labour MPs survived.
Three other seats held by Labour, Palmerston North, Wellington Central and Port Hills also gave National more party votes this time.
National also picked up three mid-west Auckland seats where it gained both the party and the electorate votes: Auckland Central, Maungakiekie and Waitakere.
Mr Carter said he did not know what caused the huge swing, which saw his party vote in Te Atatu plunge by 10 points to 40.9 per cent while National's party vote leapt by 11 points to 42.3 per cent.
"I was surprised, but I was still very pleased to win [the electorate vote]," he said. "As MP for this area, which is heartland Outrageous Fortune country, taking in Henderson, Massey, Te Atatu and Kelston, I'll be looking at the rolls very carefully and focusing on lifting our support next time round."
His National opponent, Tau Henare, said he and the candidates in New Lynn and Mt Roskill, fellow list MPs Tim Groser and Jackie Blue, concentrated solely on attracting the party vote. In another safe Labour seat, Manurewa, National candidate Dr Cam Calder said he put up more than 110 billboards but only 20 had his name on them.
Mr Groser said: "We targeted the party vote and achieved in my opinion a very significant victory. The party vote is what wins the election, not the electorate seats."
He said the New Lynn seat was "middle New Zealand" with income and unemployment figures almost identical to the New Zealand averages.
However, the seat has the country's seventh-highest proportion of Asians (22.6 per cent), behind only Mt Roskill (40.3 per cent), Botany (33.5 per cent), Pakuranga (27.2 per cent), Epsom (25.3 per cent), Mt Albert (24.1 per cent) and Manukau East (22.9 per cent).
Dr Blue said there was a huge swing in the ethnic vote to National. "It was an ethnic vote swing. That was major. That's what swung it in Mt Roskill. They were sick of the PC nanny state, sick of being patronised. It was time for a change.
"Law and order was a huge issue. There was the dairy owner in New Windsor who was stabbed, and there was the Indian shopkeeper who was charged after defending himself.
"It's a very conservative electorate, and there was also a huge backlash against all the social legislation that was passed."
She said Mr Goff had hung on to the electorate vote because he was perceived as a good local MP, but he could not take it for granted in 2011.
* The red foothold - seats Labour still holds on electorate votes that swung to National on the party vote. Three in midwest Auckland:
Mt Roskill
New Lynn
Te Atatu
Plus:
Palmerston North.
Wellington Central.
