Housing serpent swallowing itself

No one wants a world full of impersonators.

Here's an alarming statistic concerning the king of rock'n'roll. When Elvis Presley died in 1977 there were 170 Elvis impersonators on the planet. But by 2000 it was estimated there were 85,000 people earning their living in this way, meaning the number was increasing by 27 per cent every year. At that rate, it was estimated, the world would be populated entirely by Elvis impersonators by 2043. This now seems unlikely.

But I wonder if similarly dodgy arithmetic and reasoning lies behind estimates of Auckland's requirements for new dwellings. A Westpac report estimates that 10,800 dwellings should be built in Auckland every year for the next eight years to meet demand. They would be built by an extra 7700 construction workers.

There are several reasons to be dubious about Westpac's claim. First, it's being made by a bank and few bodies — private or public — have done better out of Auckland's property chaos than the Australian-owned banks that dominate our economy.

Second, it seems self-evident that if you need an extra 7700 workers to build dwellings their ranks will not be filled solely by people who are already here. So you're going to need to find homes for the new arrivals, meaning at least part of this is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

According to Radio New Zealand, Westpac's report said "a range of hurdles have to be overcome, including more training and supervision of builders, incentives to land owners and developers, and faster planning and consents".

Well, of course it did. It is self-evident that landowners and developers are being cruelly held back by the tedious insistence on ponderous planning and consent processes and having to factor in other irritants. They should be given a free pass to make these decisions. It could sit in their wallets next to their licence to print money.

But the strangest aspect of Westpac's report is that it makes the bank sound like the voice of reason compared with Auckland Council's view of the matter. The council wants 13,000 new dwellings a year for the next 30 years. They call this a "housing action plan".

This sort of thinking is evidence that Auckland's growth is no longer a natural process, resulting from the needs of its population. It is being driven by external forces, such as banks, landowners, developers and a growth-addicted council, all of whom benefit financially while not having to take responsibility for the consequences, because the environmental and social costs will only become apparent after those responsible have settled into retirement. Probably somewhere sylvan and sparsely populated.

The more the city grows the more planning for growth will be needed, which means it will grow even more. It is a serpent swallowing its own tail and getting fatter on itself.

Auckland's growth needs to be turned into New Zealand's growth, with regional policies that benefit the regions and take the pressure off Auckland's resources. It's hard to see this happening, given the evangelical enthusiasm of those promoting growth.

If we really did need that many new dwellings for that many people, there are a lot of other things we would need as well. Because any city — whether the world's best or most liveable or any other slogan dreamed up to justify rapacious development — isn't just its dwellings.

Any place worth living has natural assets and an infrastructure that provides facilities for education and culture and commerce that benefit those who use the facilities, not just those who profit from making them.