Homicide in 2021 have dropped to the lowest rate in four years - but it's believed the Covid lockdown has contributed to a recent spike in murders across Auckland.
Of the 23 victims killed in a homicide since Delta arrived in New Zealand, almost half of them have been in Auckland.
That's almost double the number of homicide victims in Auckland pre-lockdown – which was six.
Nationwide, nine people were killed by another person in September alone - the most in one month so far this year, and one of the highest monthly rates since 2017.
Police said it is difficult to attribute patterns or trends in homicides, even when it may appear there has been a 'cluster', because each case has unique circumstances.
There have been six homicide investigations in the Counties Manukau district since Auckland went into lockdown in August, compared with three in Auckland City and two in Waitemata.
Four of the victims have been under the age of 23.
Among them is a 16-year-old girl whose body was found near train tracks in Manurewa on September 11. She has interim name suppression. Vikhil Krishna, 23, has appeared in court charged with her murder.
McLean has been supporting the teenager's family, who had to grieve their loss under the tightest Covid restrictions when funerals could not take place.
"With this particular whanau we've been helping, it's certainly come through and they've got to a point where they feel peace now."
Just over a month later, 19-year-old Misiona Talafu Petelo died in a fatal shooting in Māngere. In November, two-year-old Arapera Fia was killed in a Weymouth home, and 22-year-old Gisborne man Rangiwhero Toia Ngaronoa died after being dropped off at a medical centre in Takanini with critical injuries.
McLean said the loss of young lives in the south Auckland community has been devastating.
"[It's] a huge loss, not only to the families they belong to but a huge loss to the community that they have come from.
"A lot of them are, particularly the teenagers and those that are young, are our future leaders.
"Even though there might have been just one homicide in one family, in terms of being Māori or Pacific Islanders, that could affect around about 40, 50 individuals because of how we as Māori or Pacific Islanders have a world view of working as a community, not as individuals."
Of the 23 homicide deaths across the country since August, at least six have been fatal shootings.
Police Association President Chris Cahill said gang tensions and rising gun violence are contributing to homicide rates.
"You can't ignore that rising gang tension," he told the Herald.
"It seems to be every week we hear about another significant firearms incident. This is happening while there's been the longest lockdown ever, it's a bit concerning about what will happen when the lockdown ends.
"It's not just Auckland, I look at Christchurch. We've had a teenager stabbed, another one … gunned down at a party, another beaten to death. All young teenagers, it's a horrific waste."
Cahill said it's hard to be certain about why there has been a spike in deaths in Auckland because each homicide is an independent event, and traditionally rates are low and fluctuate often.
But he didn't hesitate to acknowledge the biggest change in the past two years has been Covid-19.
"We certainly know mental distress contributes to homicides, and there are significant mental distress issues in New Zealand, but lockdown has to some degree made that worse.
"We know family harm is a significant cause of mental health. When you're locked down at the same house for months one and that's going to add to the stress there."
He said rising gun violence is worrying because it's causing fear in the community - despite figures showing homicide investigations across New Zealand are at their lowest since 2017.
Fifty-four people have been killed by another person this year, and 50 homicide investigations have been launched.
Fifteen victims were young people under the age of 24, and seven were aged 60 and above - the largest number of elderly homicide victims in five years.
Last year, there were 62 homicide victims. In 2019 there was a five-year high of 79 - excluding all 51 Christchurch mosque shooting victims.
"That's where statistics can paint one picture, but it can be different from the reality of what people are experiencing when they are actually seeing and reading about people being shot to death," said Cahill.
"Numbers tell one thing but the fear of crime can be just as serious as crime itself.
"If people don't feel safe because of what they're seeing or hearing in their community, that changes society as well."
Cahill said the overall drop in homicides is encouraging, and could be attributed to lockdowns, the more holistic approach police have taken to tackle family harm, and increasing medical techniques that can save a person's life.
"The obviously change in the last couple of years has to be Covid. You've had the lockdowns, you've got less people out on the streets, you've got less public disorder, so that's going to have some affect.
"We know a significant number of homicides are family harm related and police now have a much more holistic approach.
"That can have much better long-term outcomes rather than letting things escalate to the level that they result in a homicide, so that should be having some affect over time and may account for some of that decline."
He said it's helpful for New Zealanders to understand that sometimes perception "isn't as bad as the reality".
But he said every victim has a family.
"There's nothing to be celebrated when [54] people have already been murdered this year. It might be lower but it's [53] families that are totally devastated."
A police spokesperson said overall homicide statistics remain "fairly static".
"In relation to homicides involving firearms, police is concerned about any and all gun violence, and is focused on minimising firearms-related harm, including through Operation Tauwhiro.
"Any homicide is obviously a tragedy, and the recent cases are all the subject of extensive investigations, or are already before the courts."
Four homicide investigations launched this year remain ongoing.